League Cup Semi-Final Preview
Celtic. Game 2.
The games come thick and fast and after the emotional highs of the last two games at Pittodrie, Thelin’s men will need to dig deep into the well as they look to book a spot in the final of the League Cup for the second season in a row. The last time the Dons beat Celtic at Hampden was also in a League Cup semi-final with Eoin Jess grabbing the winning goal, 22 years ago. Refresh your memory below.
I did an in-depth preview piece ahead of the game two weeks ago and a pretty big recap too. A lot covered in those articles still applies to today's game. If you haven’t read those, they may be a good starting point. For this piece, we’ll look at what’s changed since the two teams last played a fortnight ago and maybe some adjustments Aberdeen might make.
What’s changed since the last outing?
For Aberdeen there have been three major changes to the team that started against Celtic:
Jamie McGrath has moved into the #10 role. This gets the Irishman in a more central position and he is able to quickly play through passes in behind the defence in those areas and can move the ball in three possible directions.
Duk starting on the left-hand side. McGrath was playing almost as a second #10, drifting inside and creating opportunities by switching the play. So that’s taken away but the Dons now have more width on the left and pace to carry the ball when Duk plays, or stretch the game with through balls.
Ester Sokler leading the line. Aberdeen now have speed on attack and options left, right and through the middle with the Slovenian starting, perfect for a team that’s looking to get the ball forward quickly on transitions. Sokler is also a more aggressive presser than Nisbet and can cut the field in two forcing the play to one side. The downside is, despite his goal at Celtic Park, Nisbet is a better finisher.
I would be as confident as I have been for an Aberdeen game, that the team that started the Rangers game, will be the same XI that starts tomorrow, barring any unforeseen injuries that we may not be aware of.
Celtic Team News
In terms of Celtic, they’ve been able to rotate a number of their team following the Champions League draw with Atalanta. Callum McGregor is likely to come back into the fold, and Cameron Carter-Vickers may well start. Adam Idah is also fit to play, although most likely it will be Kyogo who starts.
The biggest questions for Celtic will be at left-back - Greg Taylor vs. Alex Valle, and the makeup of the midfield three. It’s hard to imagine McGregor not starting, but the other two positions may be up for grabs with Luke McCowan impressing against Motherwell. I’ve taken a stab below, but the Celtic team may well be wrong.
Aberdeen’s Build-Up
I think it’s important to clarify some terminology as some of these terms will keep coming up, particularly when we look at Celtic. None of this is overly complex so please feel free to skip over if you’re familiar with all these ideas.
Playing out from the back vs. Playing through the thirds
For the most part, Mitov has played his goal kicks short and this was the case against Celtic in the first half. He was willing to receive the ball back on a number of occasions and look to play short from there. In most cases, Aberdeen tried to progress the ball forward with shorter passes through the midfield, or hit the striker or attacking midfielders to feet in the opening 45 at Parkhead.
What we saw against Rangers was again Mitov going short, especially in the early stages but Aberdeen being willing to skip the pass through the midfield and hit the forwards, whether directly from Molloy or Rubezic, or via one of the full backs. Here’s Devlin in possession in the right back slot.
Sokler drops deep taking the defender with him and flicks it on for Keskinen to run at the Rangers defence.
Aberdeen have a great opportunity to get in behind via Keskinen.
Yes, that is a clear through ball to Duk available for Keskinen to play (his touch did take him backwards to be fair to the lad). It does highlight the potential for the striker dropping down and the winger going high behind, yet again.
In this case, the Dons may still be ‘playing out from the back’ but they’re not necessarily ‘playing through the thirds.’
We can also compare the two heat-maps showing where Aberdeen had possession of the ball. Notice the big gap in the middle from Wednesday’s game but a lot more territory higher up the field.
How will Aberdeen approach this one possession wise?
Bearing the two points in mind, I think we may actually see less Aberdeen possession than Parkhead and more of an attempt to try and forward quickly.
That being said, dropping the ball off to Rubezic and then going long is going to fool no one in green and white and they’ll probably drop off enough to allow this to happen. The next pass is the one that they’ll really look to squeeze on and it’s at this point, when they start to commit numbers that Aberdeen can have some success.
A real balancing act but the Dons probably want to play enough short passes to give Celtic hope of winning the ball back, but then hit them in behind at the right moment when they’ve pushed on enough men. It’s the kind of thing that will have to have been worked on at the training ground and takes time. Saturday may not be the time to stress-test.
Jack and Nicky
It’s notable that Devlin and MacKenzie did not have too big an impact in an attacking sense at Celtic Park. Jack made only 11 successful passes against the Hoops comparted to 21 on Wednesday, 54 touches in total vs 34 against Celtic, and two assists of assists and a close effort of his own saved.
Devlin’s possession against Rangers was pretty poor (8/17 successful passes) but he had a goal, an assist and five passes into the final third. Against Celtic his passing was actually better (11/16) and he had a similar amount of touches but obviously there were no shots or goal scoring chances created.
I think their primary job will be to defend but it’s clear that they play a key role in how Aberdeen look to attack and we will most likely need something from one, the other or both, if we are to be victorious.
Celtic Rotations
When looking to play through the thirds, a key element to the centre-backs or goalkeeper finding a free-man is movements from those higher up the field to get themselves into space, often interchanging positions with other teammates and causing confusion in the opposition, what we know as ‘rotations’.
As we identified in the preview of the League game, Celtic, especially on the left-side, have their full-back move inside. This adds an overload to the midfield and creates a challenge for the Aberdeen markers. See this example from last time round.
Valle moved inside and Hatate moved out to the wing. The Japanese then picked up possession, played back to Scales then moved infield. Valle then started to move higher up the field, causing some confusion between Keskinen and Shinnie, all the while Hatate is able to receive between the lines, turn and play a through pass.
It was these small movements that saw Celtic break Aberdeen’s 4-4-2 pressing shape at times, and the type of motion that were absent from Wednesday’s opponents.
The Press
Keen readers will be aware that this is my favourite topic. I do wonder if there are some clues from Wednesday on how the Dons may deal with Celtic’s build-up. See the screenshot below, Sokler goes early and cuts the field in half, which eventually sees Soutar go long.
Now, Celtic’s defenders can deal with this better, but it definitely quickens the pace and allows Aberdeen to jump on the next pass if it is to go short, or mop up if it goes long. This is more of a 4-2-3-1 shape with McGrath (slightly out of picture) cutting off the supply to the opponent who dropped into the #6 position.
This has been a topic in the Premier League, as Liverpool tend to press in a 4-2-4, not too dissimilar to Aberdeen (although the Dons are a bit more conservative with the wide men). The Reds struggled against Chelsea who inverted their full-back and the solution Arne Slot came up with was to drop into a 4-1-4-1 vs. Leipzig. This is a nice video explaining that from Josh Williams.
So with the inclusion of Sokler, we may well see Aberdeen go with slightly different pressing shape than last time round with slight tweaks. I wouldn’t expect it to be a 4-1-4-1, more likely to be the 4-2-3-1 we mentioned with McGrath keeping a closer eye on McGregor and Sokler working himself to the bone for an hour to shuttle between the two Celtic centre-backs, before Ambrose or Nisbet come on to grab the winner.
Unfortunately, giving space up in the wide areas is a concession Aberdeen will probably have to accept. It was Rafa Benitez who was fond of comparing formations to a blanket or duvet that’s just a little too short. Cover one area up and you’ll leave another exposed. In this case, keeping the centre congested and clogging the midfield is seen by Jimmy as the most important part of the team’s body to keep warm.
What should we be worried about?
I think Aberdeen will be more conscious of transitions but we can’t rule out the possibility of Celtic exploiting space if Aberdeen have numbers committed. I am more concerned with two areas.
1. Celtic’s Full Backs
Alistair Johnston scored again in midweek and it came from him making a run from deep into the inside channel. Alex Valle (who may not start) also had joy against Aberdeen and it’s a really tricky conundrum to fix as Celtic are effectively cheating.
The obvious direct opponent is the Aberdeen wide midfielders, most likely Duk and Keskinen, but if they start following them they’ll leave a lot of room for a wide pass and leave MacKenzie and Devlin facing continual 1v1 situations. Shinnie and Nilsen have their hands full and the centre backs don’t tend to venture too far up field to pick up players. Here’s that image below again from April’s semi-final with Johnston making that run from deep inside to then set up O’Reilly’s goal.
It will come down to being in the right zones, staying disciplined and not committing until absolutely neccessary.
2. Corners
Aberdeen conceded 18 corners against Celtic, which generated a cumulative xG of 1.35, 42% of Celtic’s total chance creation. We saw Rangers have a few good chances from set-pieces on Wednesday, (1.15xG, 60% of their total) and against Hearts it was 0.91xG conceded (46%). Even for Dundee United, it was 0.2 xG on set-pieces, 52% of their total. So simply put Aberdeen are doing a pretty good job of restricting good goal scoring opportunities from open play, but perhaps looking more vulnerable from set-pieces.
With Celtic likely to have moments of possession high up the field, we’re going to concede corners and will need to be at our most organised and committed at the back to avoid conceding.
All figures were taken from FotMob so this may vary with different xG models but should still provide a decent representation.
Buckle Up
We’ve become accustomed to a lot of variation within games, so far this season. Pick any match you want and there will have been points in which Aberdeen were well on top, somewhat on top, somewhat not on top and on a few occasions, clinging on for dear life.
This is in large part a reflection of the manager’s ability to recognise the weaknesses of the opposition before the match and get off to a good start, or make his own adjustments if things are not going right, particularly at half-time. In general, he just seems to have a great feel for the rhythms of the game, and the appropriate game management strategy that needs to be employed (and sometimes that is just to defend the box). You don’t win 15 out of 16, and a number of them by one goal, without this skill.
Accordingly, today will likely be a 93/94 minute war at the very minimum, with a series of little battles taking place. We’ll certainly see adjustments from both sides to adapt and counteract what the other is doing well. The key, and this is something Aberdeen have been very good at, is to maximise those periods where you may be in the ascendancy and creating chances, and get the ball in the back of the net.
The team will surely take heart from the 2-2 draw but Celtic will also be at pains to ensure they are ruthless in the event they get themselves into a winning position. It certainly won’t be easy, but that’s the point isn’t it? Lifting trophies is meant to be hard and involve a team overcoming adversity. It’s nice to be going into this game with a manager and a team we can believe in, and that won’t change whatever the outcome is.
After Kenny McLean in 2017, Gary McKay-Steven’s concussion in ‘18 and the 3-3 this year, the Dons are due one against Celtic at Hampden. And though Anton Rogan may not be lacing up his boots, if it does go the distance, we do have a charismatic shot-stopper from overseas who could well be pivotal, and, unlike his predecessor, he can actually save penalties.
Enjoy the game. COYR.
P.S. You can hear me on the brilliant AFC Here We Go Podcast, discussing the Wednesday match and previewing today.