Celtic Preview
The top two teams in Scotland meet at Parkhead
With the second international break now in the rearview mirror, the Dons will finally be ‘tested’ in their next run of fixtures. Before we break again they will face Celtic (A), Dundee Utd (H), Rangers (H) and Celtic again in the League Cup semi-final.
For the last few weeks, in complete opposition to the recommendation of Jimmy Thelin to take it game by game, this weekend’s trip to Parkhead has been looming in the back of all our minds. The Dons have been able to remain perfect and now we’re allowed to give this match our full attention. Celtic too, have kept up their end of the bargain. Something has to give on Saturday.
Short-term, emerging with the unbeaten record intact would be a major achievement for Aberdeen. Making it eight league wins in a row (14 in all competitions), to match the best ever start to a league campaign would both be historic and euphoric. In the long-term, a display that shows confidence on the ball, solidity in defence and a threat in attack, regardless of the score (within reason), particularly ahead of the semi-final on November 2nd, would provide a lot of confidence that this team is in it for the long haul.
The problem is Celtic are streets ahead of the rest of Scotland. Though Aberdeen are joint top, the Champions have conceded one goal (a retaken penalty at Ross County) whilst scoring 22 goals, just over 3 per game. Average possession is around 75%, closer to 80% when you discount the Rangers game.
Aberdeen’s record at Celtic Park does not provide any solace. In the last 25 visits to the East End of Glasgow, they have won once (the Andy Considine winner), drawn once, and lost 23 times.
Aberdeen’s last five visits to Celtic
It will be a tough task but you already knew that. The good news is Barry Robson is not in charge and first-team coach Peter Leven has an impressive record as Head Coach v Celtic - a 1-1 draw in February at Pittodrie and the dramatic 3-3 in the Scottish Cup Semi-Final.
Tactical Questions
I’m speculating on the line-ups but here’s my guess below.
The Palaversa debate is again in full flow and this may be the week the Croat does find himself in the starting line up. We saw this shape in the second half against Dundee and at Hearts with Shinnie moved up to the point of the midfield triangle. This will sacrifice technical ability further up the field by removing Clarkson but it may be more important to establish control of the ball in deeper areas. His passing range will be an asset for starting counter-attacks.
In terms of the shape, I’m guessing at least on paper it will remain the same, the alternative may be to go with a flat three in midfield and though this seems like a small structural change it could have a big impact on how Aberdeen press as we will explore below. There’s been talk of Sokler starting based on his pressing ability but I would find it hard to see them leave out Nisbet, a better finisher of chances. As ever, in Jimmy we trust and we’ll find out around 2pm on Saturday. We must also remember at this level, formations are just a starting point and the positioning will adjust based on ball position and the game state.
The Four Parts of the Game
As I had a bit more time due to the International break, I’ve decided to look at the four parts of the game in relation to this weekend. The exact nomenclature can vary but I’ve gone with the below.
Out of possession
In possession
Attacking transitions
Defensive transitions
Additionally, I’ve used these three phases to breakdown each part in relation to position of the ball on the field.
1. Out of possession: Celtic have the ball
First phase (Celtic defensive third): Aberdeen have been given a lot of credit for being high pressing but it’s hard to be high pressing when no one plays out from the back. That’ll change on Saturday.
I’d be surprised if Jimmy launches a full frontal assault on Celtic. More likely we will get our familiar mid-block, sitting around the half-way line with intent to engage if the right trigger presents itself or a trap can be implemented.
The Dons press in a 4-4-2, staying compact and directing opponents to the wide areas. They will need to be conscious of Callum McGregor’s position and deny passes into the Celtic #6. Former Don Liam Scales is likely to have Austin Trusty partner him at the back. Valle will invert on the left side and Johnson may step in on the right also, but it will likely be the Spaniard who comes inside in the first phase of the build-up.
The initial aim of Aberdeen’s press will be to slow Celtic down force them to make sideways passes and then open up an opportunity to press hard, force the play to one side of the field and try and create a turnover (this was explored in greater detail in the St. Mirren recap). Trusty is a left-footer who will likely play on the right hand side. This may present an opportunity to force him on to his weaker foot and try and steal the ball.
If Palaversa comes in, at the expense of Clarkson and Aberdeen push Shinnie in to the number #10, I still think they’ll retain this 4-4-2 shape. I’m not certain if they would look to pin Shinnie on MacGregor based on the potential for Celtic to create a box in the build up. See the image below from this analysis piece on the game against Rangers. Greg Taylor highlighted below is tucked inside to become another central midfielder and Cerny is forced to go with him creating easy passing lanes to the wide players.
That being said, that outside pass is still a danger and if Aberdeen adopt a similar approach to what they did against Hearts (remember Dhanda receiving on the touchline) then this pass below to Maeda in particular is likely to be on.
Second phase (midfield): After the initial penetration into this phase, I expect Aberdeen will get behind the ball and retreat into a low-block. In the League Cup Falkirk did this really well and Ross County were similar last week.
They will need to be aware of quick, one-touch passing combinations particularly if the ball gets out to Maeda or Kuhn. If the press is just not quite right, things can go wrong quickly. I’ve noted in recent weeks that Dundee and Hearts were able to get runners from midfield in behind the Aberdeen full-backs. For Celtic it could be the midfielders or it could be the full-backs. Here’s Alistair Johnston in the semi-final doing exactly that and then going on to setup a goal for Matt O’Reilly.
Third Phase (Celtic attacking third): No doubt Celtic will be able to work the ball into these areas at some point and then it will come down to 1v1 defending and concentration. Though MacKenzie and Devlin are no slouches, Maeda and Kuhn are probably two of the fastest players in the country. The former is a more direct runner but the latter can dribble at speed. This will be a real challenge for MacKenzie who will have to be at his best. Kuhn does like to move inside onto his left which may suit Aberdeen and the aim may well be to force the players inside into traffic. Again, Ross County did this well last week
Inside the box we know Kyogo is a consistent threat with his movement and finishing ability. Molloy and Rubezic will not be able to switch off and must refrain from rash challenges.
Finally, the Dons need to be ready at the top of the box if the ball comes out. MacGregor has already scored a couple of long-rangers this season and Bernardo and Hatate are also capable of scoring from outside the box.
2. In Possession: Aberdeen have the ball
First Phase (Aberdeen defensive third): One of the most intriguing questions will be whether Aberdeen persevere with playing out of the back. As noted last week Hearts were able to squeeze Aberdeen, force long balls, or worse create turnovers. Yet, there were also a number of good passing sequences that allowed Aberdeen to break a press and create more space further up the field.
Those pre-planned patterns and rotations will just have to be executed at the highest level and the players will need to have an ‘if this, then that’ plan in their collective heads.
Thelin doesn’t strike me as the type of coach to cut his nose off to spite his face. They will be prepared for Celtic’s pressure and hopefully have a plan to deal with it but I would expect there is a plan B to fight for possession from longer kicks with the first and second balls if things are breaking down.
Against Rangers, Celtic pressed deep enough to encourage the ball out of the back but were ready to pounce when the time was right. They may be more aggressive against Aberdeen.
Second Phase (Midfield): Aberdeen’s ability to retain the ball will be critical for a number of reasons. Firstly, it will allow them to build a platform to create scoring chances. Secondly it keeps the ball away from Celtic.Thirdly, it’s likely to create unrest in the home crowd. Finding that pass to break the lines and get Clarkson (if he’s playing) or McGrath on the ball will be essential.
The Celtic centre backs tend to go with the striker regardless of how deep he goes and this may present an opportunity for runners in behind. Nisbet is starting to drop in to receive more often and there was an up-back-and-through combo, against Hearts that almost led to a scoring chance for Keskinen. Something like this could be repeated if Scales or Trusty go in hard and tight.
Third Phase (Aberdeen attacking third): Aberdeen have been working on establishing attacking platforms in the opposition half. A fancy way of saying, they keep the ball and work it around to try and find the space for the through pass.
McGrath will be important as we well know his positioning inside the field as a second #10 can create an additional overload to create space for Jack MacKenzie to run in behind. He also is a strong enough dribbler to open something up by beating a man.
On the opposite flank Keskinen v Valle might be the one area of the field where Aberdeen have the upper hand on the matchup. After going up against Kyle Walker, he should be confident in his ability to play against the Spaniard. The Finn has struggled little when space gets tight but he should have plenty of green grass to run into against the Hoops.
If Aberdeen can get to the by-line from a passing combo or a a great run, they will be looking to deliver the cutback. From there it will be about being clinical. I’m not going to bring up the 2017 Scottish Cup final, but a more recent memory is Johnny Hayes chance in the opening day of the 2022 season, just before half-time. The Dons will not get a host of chances so it is about taking them when they arrive. Luckily this is one metric that Aberdeen have been excelling in thus far and hopefully they can continue that again on Saturday. This is why I think Nisbet will start.
3. Transition: Aberdeen have just won the ball back
This is the area that the Dons have been improving on from week to week and hopefully they can use this to create chances on Saturday. We know that Celtic will commit numbers forward and leave themselves short at the back particularly in the full back slots. Again this is Keskinen territory as he is the only player in the starting line-up who will have the pace to stretch the Celtic defence. And it may also be Palaversa territory too as he has the best range of passing to hit a diagonal switch and open the game up.
The first pass will be critical and the Dons will need to get quickly out of pressure, and into the open space. If they cannot quickly work it forward then it will likely go backwards and they the build up phase again. We saw a few of these recycling patterns against Hearts.
4. Defensive Transition: Aberdeen have just lost the ball
Probably the area of biggest concern. Celtic will typically swarm the ball upon conceding possession. With the defensive structure looser, space can be exploited and Celtic have the technical ability and tactical nouse to play a through pass. Check out their first goal against Kilmarnock on opening day. Killie can’t clear and within a pass Hatate has the ball in the back of the net.
Another area would be if Aberdeen have possession high up the field and the ball gets turned over. As mentioned before, Celtic’s pace in these scenarios could create a big problem. See the opening goal against Hibs earlier this year as an example.
Bonus: Set-Pieces
Aberdeen have two goals from corners this season in the league and a few more when the League Cup is added in. Of course these will present an opportunity to get numbers forward and McGrath has great delivery.
At the opposite end of the field, we saw Aberdeen concede against Hearts from the second ball from a corner. They have also given up some chances against Motherwell and Dundee from wide areas. The Dons look to pack the box with all 11 men and it seems like this is Thelin’s preferred method. This is what Brentford seem to do, so it’s likely backed up by some data.
Aside from the concern of Celtic players getting the ball at the edge of the box like Blair Spittal did for his goal, I’ve also noticed that the Dons only send one player out to defend short corners. Dundee were able to create better crossing angles because of this and with Celtic’s dribbling ability, this could present another danger with 2v1s.
Summary
It promises to be a great occasion on Saturday and it’s thanks to the work of Jimmy Thelin and his coaches that we are able to head into a trip to Celtic with some optimism. It’s been a long time coming.
Aside from the excitement of the game, it may well be the most interesting match of the season so far from a tactical perspective. There are so many questions that we will have to wait until Saturday for an answer to. By 5pm we should have a better idea on how Aberdeen will approach such fixtures moving forward.
It will be a learning curve there is no doubt. At times we will suffer. But there will be a plan and if it can be executed and we can carry some luck, maybe, just maybe, we can come away with something.
Enjoy the match
COYR
P.S. The Dons have received some more tactical coverage this week, which may be of interest to you all. It can be difficult to distill everything Aberdeen are doing into one article or video but there are some interesting takeaways from all three links below.
JJ Bull, an Aberdeen fan and tactics writer, wrote a piece for the Athletic (behind a paywall).
Total Football Analysis flagged up Aberdeen’s success with cutbacks.
Football Park did a Tactical Breakdown YouTube video
Also, please check out the latest episode of the Here We Go podcast which previews the game.