“Wait until the window and we get the players in to fit the system.” “Wait until the window and we get players in to fix the defence.” “Wait until the window and we get players in to fix the frontline.” “Wait until this tough start is out of the way and we’ll get going.”
These are the things I’ve been telling myself. We know the drill. Hearts/Celtic tough games. Falkirk, well, we played a half a man down. FCSB same. Recruitment wasn’t complete.
But this was Livi at home. The window is closed. The new lads played. And still we haven’t scored a goal. I remember being at Pittodrie that day Andy Dow scored his free-kick. That was the seventh league game of the season. We play Dundee Utd and Motherwell away next.
Familiar Patterns
I mentioned this before. We seem to be getting into a pattern of starting games well, creating a couple of good chances, but failing to make a breakthrough. There’s just enough to be positive about. It seems like we’re always just missing that final piece.
Goals are a rare commodity in football. Most attacks don’t result in a shot. Most shots don’t result in a save. Failure is to be expected. It’s actually quite hard to put the ball in the back of the net. Since 2000/01 season, the average number of Aberdeen goals in the SPFL is 1.25.
Yet right now, Aberdeen, beyond that initial burs,t don’t seem to be taking many shots, nor getting many on target, nor getting any in the goal. It’s grim reading.
The positive person in me looks at those numbers and identifies that the team is underperforming on xG. Average xG per shot is 0.089 from 45 shots. Hibs have had 70 in the same number of games. Their chance quality is a little higher than Aberdeen’s at 0.11. Put volume and quality together, and you get seven goals. The quality of finish (xGOT) is clearly a factor too. See the breakdown of all our chances below.
Aberdeen will not continue to fail to score goals. There will be a regression to the mean at some point, but whether the mean is where we need it to be is another question.
Identity
As a confession, I’ve not watched every game back this season, but I did watch this one. It served as a good reminder that maybe you should just pick up that book or watch that film.
In general, some themes have been common on these pages. It’s part of the reason I struggle with the game-by-game reports these days. Maybe I’m not looking hard enough but everything seems quite similar.
This was from last spring, if you can’t get enough of it.
Case in point. The strategy, as far as I can see, when in possession, is to try and create chances from wide areas. Alexander Jensen is an incredibly important player in this system. Gyamfi might be too, but usually there’s an asymetrical element to the shape, and it was the case again on Saturday with Karlson wider and Keskinen as the inside forward.
There is more and more publicly available data now being packaged up for us all to review and the insight90 app is another brilliant addition. You can have a lot of fun in there. Here’s our passing network and average position. Jensen is #28.
The Dane was unlucky with his chance, which was well-saved by the keeper. Maybe he could have hit it harder? However, he’s not exactly in the team to be the answer in front of goal.
This though, was a good example of the system working. Jensen in space, three Aberdeen attackers on the last line but the final ball was a let down.
I think instructions are to wait for certain situations (like the above) and to recycle if it looks like bad odds in the middle, which it generally is on most occasions. And when the defence is a bit deeper, he’s not whipping balls into the box from deep like a Nicky Cadden for example.
I don’t know if Jensen’s passing stats and receptions are entirely based on his awareness and intelligence to get on the ball, or the fact that the system is designed to have him as the free man and teams are less worried about him than the winger who’s tucked inside, hence he gets the space. Perhaps it’s both. But it doesn’t seem like we’re able to make that much happen from those areas all that often right now.
Cute wee passes
Another element with the turn backs and pass backs is probably about establishing an attacking platform in the opposition half. To develop controlled possession to switch the play for on overload on the opposite side, for example, or to try and move the opponent around so gaps can appear and you can find the little through ball.
The Dons did this better in the second half, with Clarkson, Polvara, Armstrong, and Palaversa on the pitch. See graphic below.
The two best chances of the second half came from Polvara receiving in the inside left channel and playing a through ball to Keskinen. The game had opened up a little by then, but we’re not really finding a man in those pockets, turning quickly and playing the ball through all that often.
At the start of last season, what went under the radar a little was Jamie McGrath’s excellence in that position. He wasn’t an out-and-out winger, but he caused a lot of problems by drifting into those spaces that Polvara is pictured in.
When we didn’t have a smart passer to get on the ball and play those passes, we had ball carriers in Shayden Morris and Duk. Remember when we used to score goals from cutbacks? See the image from that February article linked above showing assist locations.
Topi Keskinen
It’s a bit of a conundrum with the young Finn. He was key to our two best chances late in the second half, but it was late on as mentioned. He has now played 50 games for the Dons. In his last 24 league matches he has contributed one goal and zero assists, whilst starting nearly every game.
I tried to paint a balanced picture in the recent review of his performances. The key consideration in regards to him making serious contributions long-term was his ability to improve in the final third, especially in relation to dribbling ability in tight spaces to create space, the ability to beat his man 1v1, or the finishing ability to take chances. For the most part, he was unlucky not to pick up an assist on Saturday, but there was still something missing from the connection with the players in the box. I don’t know if that’s on him.
Anyway, he may need a rest. Maybe some time as an impact sub.
Adil Aouchiche
I thought this lad’s failure to make a through pass at Tynecastle was early-season jitters. Syncing into the system and the like. I’ve seen nothing since to suggest that he is going to be the man to break down stubborn defences. Clarkson, Polvara or Armstrong would all be better options as the #10.
As an example, this cross was sloppy and lazy and nowhere near good enough. Note Keskinen and Nisbet are making the same run.
Here’s his per90 passing stats from FotMob.
Just leaving Jamie McGrath’s out here for comparison.
And further to my earlier point, he’s not getting on the ball often enough in those Polvara spaces.
Four games in. Jumping to conclusions, I suppose. Hoping I’m wrong.
Jesper Karlsson
The Swede looked lively and has done enough to suggest to me that he will be an upgrade on Keskinen on the left. However, we’ve got early evidence that he’s never met a shot he didn’t like. The highlight reel doesn’t show you the misses. Shotmap from his big season with AZ. Note the xG overperformance as well, if you're into that sort of thing. Matchball collectors in the RDS might be in for some rich pickings.
At least he has a go. Promising debut.
Pressing
I only really started to look at this just inside the second half. What’s going on here? Aouchiche and Nisbet are the front two in the 4-4-2. The Frenchman goes to press the Livi CB on the ball.
The ball is played back to the keeper. Now there’s an argument that maybe Nisbet should shield the pass into Sylla but he goes to the keeper. Aouchiche then moves to cover Sylla but does so by turning his back on the ball. The goalie just plays it back to the CB who’s now unmarked.
Aouchiche then moves towards the centre-back who plays it wide to the fall back and now there’s an easy pass to Sylla.
This is just uncoordinated and headless chicken stuff. Settle down, slow them down, get your shape then go again. You could also make an argument that having two deeper midfielders makes it harder for lines to be compact, creating space for the opposition to exploit.
Keep an eye on this for Motherwell, who have shown good ability to play through the thirds. Tighten it up boys.
Opposition Styles
Speaking of Motherwell, I don’t know for sure how accurate this little PowerPoint SmartArt graphic I created is, but I provide it to ask the question: against which style of opponent do we think Aberdeen’s current system/style is best set up to exploit?
Clearly there are levels here; Celtic and Falkirk might have similar styles of play but we saw the Dons were able to create more chances against the Bairns, in the first half at least.
In theory, the Dons under Thelin should be best in those games with less possession to create transition opportunities, but it hasn’t seemed to have manifested. It feels like the teams on the left-hand side just bully us, and we don’t have the quality to play quickly enough through their high press or low block, whatever the case may be.
Maybe it’s doom and gloom but it’s hard to shake the feeling that this team is just too predictable and too soft.
Saturday is a big game. Motherwell are likely to have more of the ball, and that’s all well and good if the Dons can exploit that but if they can’t and we get played off the park and fail to win for the fourth home game in a row, then it’s unlikely to be too cheery an atmosphere at full-time. Then we head to see Jimmy G.
Enjoy the Game. Let’s hope this is the week it all turns round. Maybe it will be 6-5.
COYR
We look like a team and a manager hoping for things to happen. Of course this happens when low on confidence but as you say, the plan seems to be to recycle when nothing appears on but it's all too safe and just fades out and I think fans are getting tired of it.We need a spark from somewhere, something like the Dorrington mazy run in the cup final. Perhaps the team personality is too much like the managers, but something has to change on and off the pitch to get us going.
Interesting piece on Jensen there. Via the eye test, it does appear to be a case of getting into decent positions and then turning back. Didn't really consider that he's perhaps being asked to do this rather than risk losing possession by making a cross. However, there needs to come a point where the "fuck it, let's see what happens" mentality comes out. In the still you've shown above, even I'm thinking "slip it behind the defence and see what happens". I just get the sense of nervousness to lose possession. But let's have a go.
Despite Karlsson loving a shot from even outside the Bobbin pub, it's still very damning that he's managed more shots in one game than Yengi has in his entirety. (If I've understood the graphic correctly!).
Great stuff as always Gavin.