Countdown Conundrum

Rearrange 10 outfielders into a winning line-up

Thursday sees the Dons travel to Bucharest to take on FCSB and attempt to become the first non-Glasgow Scottish side to win a playoff-match since that heady night in Dnipro, eighteen years ago. And yes, I’m assuming Hibs won’t win.

It’s the club’s second trip to Romania. Last one went well. Eventually.

Speaking of comebacks, last week was thrilling and fun. Indeed the Dons looked good but were let down by their Achilles heels:

1. Defensive lapses

2. A lack of cutting edge

I was impressed with how the team started, it felt to me like Thelin’s ideas were really taking shape. You can see the identity in possession but we were not clinical enough in the first half with the few openings we had and we gave our opponents the chance to show us how it’s done.

I’m not certain how much can be added to in terms of the post-match discussion from the first-leg so I want to focus on what Jimmy might do this week. This is just a lot of idle speculation while we wind the hours down.

What did we learn about FCSB?

There were certainly things the club will have picked up on re. specific individuals and maybe set play setups but I doubt there’s a whole lot from last Thursday that can be that insightful.

The Romanians were happy to cede possession, before they even went down to ten men. Once they went 2-0 ahead they set their stall out to leave with as much as they could, focusing on defending their box.

I have no access to watch any other FCSB games so unfortunately can’t really offer much insight other than what can be found on the apps. I think it’s fair to assume they’ll play a 4-2-3-1 based on their previous matches. It also looks like they rested quite a few starters in Sunday’s loss to Arges.

Are they likely to have most of the ball? You’d think so. But are they a ball dominant team equivalent to Celtic, I’m not sure. Approaches of the opposition can also affect this. If Aberdeen want FCSB to have all the ball, they can make that choice.

So what will Jimmy do? Let’s speculate on three of different scenarios. Just for fun.

1. Transition Monsters

Unfortunately, as it’s behind a paywall many of you won’t be able to access but Alan Morrison of the Huddle Breakdown wrote a Celtic-minded piece on the issues Aberdeen caused at Pittodrie. The effective summary is that the structure and gameplan from Aberdeen was sound, but the decision making and personnel involved failed to take advantage.

My hunch is this is what we’re going to be looking at on Thursday. We have to remember this is what Thelin believes in and I think he’ll be pretty confident he can put a plan together to win this match.

Out of possession this will be the 4-4-2 like we saw against Celtic, and like we’ve seen throughout the Swede’s tenure. The Dons will let FCSB have it in their half, keep compact between the lines and look to win the ball back when it breaks the first line of the press and break quickly.

For this to work we’re going to need quality execution from Aouchiche, Milanovic and Keskinen when the ball does break. We’ve seen flashes from the former two but nothing tangible thus far. As for Topi, well I covered that last week, but it was another big game in which he really didn’t offer too much.

System #1 - 4-2-3-1

So we’re in with 4-2-3-1. I’ve made a guess at the positions. The ones in question are:

• RCB: Milne or Dorrington. It was Alfie taken off at half-time so perhaps Jack Milne might get the nod but since Knoesters has played with Dorrington more often, I went with the on-loan Spurs man. He’s also a bit quicker and might be better at breaking the press on the dribble

• LB: Molloy, Shinnie or Devlin. It’s not an easy one but I think the captain will play. For me it’s him or Devlin. I’d probably go with Devlin but I think Jimmy may went Shinnie on the park. Roasted for pace. Maybe?

• CM: I think Palaversa is a stick-on. So it’s Clarkson, Heltne-Nilsen, Shinnie or Polvara (more on him later). I’m thinking it’s going to be Nilsen and Twitter will probably break. It’s fair to raise questions on Sivert’s performances since he returned but we’re getting into slightly hysterical territory online in regards to the Norwegians abilities.

• LW: Morris or Keskinen. I think Milanovic has got the RW slot as a starter so it would be between Shayden or Topi. He’ll go with Topi and keep Shady-Mo in reserve.

• CF: Sokler did enough and though he doesn’t have the presence of Yengi, he’s busier. He missed one chance that Yengi would have been crucified for but he took his header well with a nice bit of movement to get away from his man. He’s not the answer but we’re in this spot and he’ll give it his best go, we know that.

2: Dusting Down the Cup Final Plan

The primary reason for this approach is to tighten the team up defensively. Take Morton aside and the team have conceded two goals per game thus far this season, continuing a worrying trend from last season.

It might look something like this?

You can slice and dice and stick in some others but my main concern is on the lack of width. However, watch Thursday’s game back and we can see that it was the full-backs, particularly on the right side with Jensen that were expected to provide the contributions on the flanks.

In the Cup Final we really didn’t get going until Morris came on and he played on the right of the midfield three. He’s not starting there on Thursday. Perhaps you put Keskinen on for Yengi or even Morris, so you have some pace on the break. There’s not a front two like Duk and Miovski to call on here.

I’m not sure FCSB are as good as Celtic and I don’t know if they warrant such a considered approach, without a real plan for how we get forward. But maybe that’s worth sacrificing. Let’s be honest, we could nick a goal if we keep it tight. Would the attacking trade off be worth it based on the evidence of this season?

3: The Robson

I haven’t seen this mentioned too much but it might offer a nice balance between defensive solidity, retaining Thelin’s double pivot and adding some threat on the wings. I even found a spot for Polvara, who could reprise his wide midfield role from Eintracht Frankfurt away.

You could definitely make a case for Morris and/or Keskinen to start but it would be good to have one or both to come off the bench. I’m just throwing names in here to mix it up. The increased defensive solidity may provide a spot for Clarkson to come in centrally, maybe even Aouchiche could move to the left for a narrow four.

Personally I think this might give us the best chance of success. Keeps FCB on their toes with a threat to get forward, offers good options to sub players in.

Clarkson and Polvara

Big Dante produced another strong cameo on Thursday, like he did v Celtic. In both matches, he came on as a left winger/wide target man yet most of the talk has been about him playing centre-mid in a two. (For a discussion on this, check out this week’s episode of Here We Go). I’m not saying Dante can’t play there, I’m just sceptical of whether Thursday will be the night Jimmy chooses to break with habit.

Leighton Clarkson seems to be a bit of a victim of the return of Nilsen and the addition of Aouchiche. He had retreated to a deeper midfield role as the season concluded and he did well when he appeared on Thursday.

There’s quite a difference in profiles of the potential central mids, perhaps Kjartan Már Kjartansson fits a Nilsen or Palaversa mould. So there’s the horses for courses argument and there’s the what’s Jimmy’s preferred profile in there. Was Clarkson a temporary solution in there last season. Does Dante fit the mould? I guess, we’ll just wait and see.

What’s Going to Happen then?

It’s a big call for Jimmy. He came through the Cup Final with flying colours by giving his team the best chance to win. We know what his long-term plans are but I don’t think there’s any question that we’re past the stage of trying to play a certain way to embed ideas in. Progressing through the tie would be another feather in his cap. I’m just not sure we’re the well oiled transitional outfit yet. And we’re certainly not a cohesive defensive unit. This might be a cause for deviation.

The Europa League will present glamour. It will also probably present some reality checks. But the game’s about glory and moments. We’re not going to win either this or the Conference League but it’s likely the highest level of football Aberdeen can realistically achieve (until Tony Bloom invests). We’ve got a chance here. Keep it tight, keep it close, let lady luck play her part. That’s what got us here after all.

Good luck to the boys. Safe travels to those of you making the trek.

Come on You Reds.