Pape Habib Gueye
An enigma
Far be it for anyone to suggest we do not wish to tackle the big topics of the season here at www.afc1903.com. Earlier this year, we looked at Shayden Morris, who’s certainly been the topic of much considered (and unconsidered) discussion amongst Dons fans this season. Morris, it seems, has moved the needle on his abilities to whether his value is best provided coming off the bench or from the start, not whether he is fit to wear a red shirt. LIVE UPDATE - MORRIS NAMED FANS PLAYER OF THE YEAR = needle shifted pretty far.
There is another player, on a redemption arc, who has also divided opinion despite enjoying a pretty successful season. In this case, the jury still appears to remain out. Arise, Pape Habib Gueye, your day in the football court has arrived.
Chad Bradford
Here’s your first Moneyball reference (only took 10 months) in the video above. Chad Bradford was a talented pitcher who had one flaw - a weird throwing action. Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s looked beyond this, signed him, and he did pretty well. Unless we’re talking the 2007 Boston Red Sox, my baseball knowledge is pretty thin, so apologies if I can’t provide more context, but he did good enough to feature in the movie adaptation.
I’m making this analogy because you’ll probably not have to go far to find Pape Gueye described as ‘not looking like a footballer’... This is in part, and maybe we’re all primed to notice it now after his “disappointing” first season, because Gueye seems to make the simplest mistakes: bad first touches, wayward passes, tripping over his own feet when dribbling.
Losing possession, or stopping an attack, are all concerns, but I can’t think of a major game-costing error Gueye has made - he did give up possession early in the semi-final, but it amounted to nothing in the end. It was a terrible pass.
Back to Bradford. Do these mistakes cloud our judgement of the overall merits of Gueye the player? Should Aberdeen’s approach to finding hidden value be applied solely to untapped geographic markets? Can we find value in players who may not pass the eye test at all times, even players who do make a lot of mistakes, but offset it with their positive contributions and the occasional bit of magic like this…?
Let’s summon our inner Jonah Hill and look at some numbers.
Data Dons
From a ‘data’ perspective, this is a basic review. I don’t have access to any of the sophisticated numbers the club will be looking at e.g., some kind of possession value model, nor do I have an elaborate benchmarking system that I can call on. Regardless, there are some simple things we can take a look at for a bit of fun.
Pape Habib Gueye
SPFL Minutes Played: 1020
Games Started: 13
Goals Scored: 6 (4.76xG, 5.46xGoT)
Assists: 1 (0.73xA)
This information comes from FotMob. There’s no sense regurgitating it all, so here’s a link to Pape’s profile if you want to see it in more granular detail.
What I can do is compare him to his teammates.
Just a reminder for those of you tuning in from Helsinki, we’re just presenting numbers here. Gueye is the second top goalscorer in the team (granted, five of those goals came in a hot spell in August/September). Assist-wise wise he’s not offering a lot, but from a per-minute perspective, he is one of the most effective contributors in attack.
Since this is a ‘data’ piece. We need to consider the ‘expected’ numbers. How does this look?
Again, Gueye comes out looking quite well. His sample size is lower than most.
On the defensive side, see below.
League Comparison
The above radar chart comes from Ben Grifis, whom I’ve plugged before. I think what this tells us is most of what we already know. Gueye is a threat in the box and is good in the air, but his passing is, at times, poor, and he does not offer too much defensively.
These benchmarks are for central and attacking midfielders, which I think is fair enough, but we know Gueye is not a traditional #10 and acts as an additional striker quite often. Ergo, his numbers from an attacking perspective are likely to be higher than many of his peers in that position, especially those in central midfield. I don’t have the skills to compare him to strikers in the league.
Plus/Minus
All ends up, Gueye is sitting with a positive goal differential in his games for Aberdeen. In only three matches he has played, Aberdeen have lost. In games he has started, the team’s record is: P13, W9, D2, L2.
Correlation does not equal causation, particularly in a sport with ten teammates, and there’s a clear drop in Gueye’s attacking contributions following his return from injury in January, with only one goal and one assist in eleven matches.
Still, it’s a pretty solid record that you could build an argument around.
The Tactics
Unfortunately, I don’t have the time and means to go through and analyse Pape’s every move from the recent games, but do want to look into a few topics.
Left-side overloads
From day one under Thelin, we’ve seen fluidity in the attacking players with an asymmetrical bias towards the left side. For a large chunk of the season, this involved establishing some numerical superiority and working passes to create a through pass or a switch to the right. See below an image representing this from the recap of our only visit to Gorgie this season.
I think we’ve established that possession in tight spaces is not Gueye’s forte. Where he does well, is in transitional moments or quicker build-up sequences, and we’ve seen more of this in Thelin 2.0: Springball. In the example below, the ball has gone back to Mitov, who spreads it to Shinnie. Gueye just drops into that little space to receive, and now Hibs have a problem - a 1v2 to deal with and Keskinen, high and wide.
Those three - Shinnie, Gueye, and Keskinen- seem to have a decent understanding. Five minutes earlier, we had a full-scale rotation of positions - Gueye at left back, Shinnie at left wing, and Keskinen striker.
There was also a good dynamic between McGrath, Gueye, and MacKenzie earlier in the season. So I highlight this to show Gueye seems to have:
The tactical awareness to work with his teammates to create numbers-up situations in that area of the field/follow the gaffer’s instructions on how he wants to progress the ball
The timing and ability to drop in at the right time to receive in space behind the midfield and in front of the defence
Those receptions are in good areas, and he seems to be getting better at linking the play - 21/22 passes were successful on Saturday.
Winning the ball in the air and being a target for longer balls
Gueye is great in the air at both winning the ball and scoring goals. His aerial duel wins are in the 99th percentile for his position, and he has scored four goals from 10 headed shots this season in the league. See one such goal against Killie (video via Paul Donaldson on YouTube).
There’s also the outlet factor. We’re back to provoking the press and all that, but we’ve certainly seen in recent games, teams pushing high on Aberdeen, the defence then chooses to go long, and you want someone who can either flick it on (for a running teammate), create enough of a challenge to stop the defender taking it down, or be able to hold the ball up depending on the height.
Gueye’s not perfect at this, don’t get me wrong, his hold-up play could certainly improve, but if you just compare him to Ester Sokler for example, and consider Aberdeen being pressed high, who would you rather have up front?
In these games of fine margins approaching, having a major threat at set-pieces is important, as we saw in the Scottish Cup semi. Gueye is our best header of the ball. We will want him on the field at some point when these opportunities present themselves.
Second Balls
I’ve been noticing this, and I can’t share too many examples, but Gueye seems to have a good knack for picking up second balls. This is the quickest example I could find, but I will start noting down moving forward.
Knoester has played a long ball looking for Keskinen. Gueye, preparing for him not to win the ball, starts to make a run underneath. The Hibs man wins it, but Pape has moved into the area where it lands and picks off the second ball.
What happens next? His first touch goes out of play, and Hibs have a throw-in. Pape being Pape. And that’s the gist of the whole argument. Do you praise the first action or berate the second? Balance, something the internet does not like, is probably the answer. He’s under a bit of pressure, but he’s also a professional footballer.
The Present, the Future, and the Past
One of my motivations for writing this piece is that I think we might be moving to a post-Pape starting XI. With Jamie McGrath now back in contention, I’ve a feeling his energy, on and off the ball, may be preferred in upcoming matches, and I didn’t want Pape to just be a footnote to the season.
And yet, it is a strange situation for this top six because we now have two games in which we will presume to be the primary aggressor against teams and coaches who never met a hoof up the park they didn’t like. Games in which an aerial presence would seem to be important.
We also have Barry’s Brown Brogues Staunch XI. We’ve no idea what we’re going to get there, but Gueye certainly did fine the last time round. The concern would be Celtic. We’re not ready for Cup final previews yet, however, off the ball you’d have to say McGrath might be a better fit.
Longer term, I wonder if Thelin will be looking to strengthen, perhaps someone more capable on both sides of the ball. We will see.
In conclusion, members of the jury, Pape Habib Gueye is not the perfect footballer, but I would say his contributions to Aberdeen FC’s season have been very commendable. Has he done enough to justify his reported transfer fee? Probably not. Will he be the answer long-term? We don’t know. Does he have a role to play in the next five matches? Absolutely. Has he performed above everyone’s initial expectations at the start of the season? Definitely.
Cheers Pape. Not guilty in my book.
COYR.
Personally I see a player who has played a clear role in the recent decent run. I don't think he is going to be the first choice in that position next season but he is a key player for the rest of the season.