Great Expectations
Predicting Points Totals
Jimmy Thelin look away now. What follows is a post that fundamentally ignores one of the key tenets of Thelinism - ‘Thou must take it one game at a time’ - surely the third commandment after Stay Humble and Respect the Opponent.
Additionally, if you’re not one for modern footballing metrics, then this also might be one to bypass, but if you’re reading this newsletter, I’m guessing you might have at least a passing interest.
With Aberdeen’s recent and natural downturn in form, their expected goal differential data has been given greater scrutiny i.e. opposition fans using this as support to celebrate our ‘bubble bursting’. Back in October I did a short piece on this. At the time it showed the Dons were over performing. Since then, not a whole lot has changed.
Combining both xG (for) and xGA (against), gives you the Expected Goal Difference (xGD) and from there, some smart folks can determine xPts. There are a few different models out there, most of them publicly available. Here’s where they think the Dons should be
As you can see there is some variation but for the most part they concur. This gives us an average of 1.32pts per game (PPG) which would place the Dons around mid-table. Extrapolate that out for a whole season you would end up with 50pts. On two occasions over the past four seasons that would get you 5th, on one it would be enough for 4th and if it was 2022/23, you would be finishing 6th. So that’s the level Thelin’s team is performing at, according to the data. However, in real life, we’re bringing home 2.125pts per game.
How does this play out for the rest of the season?
If we go with the data nerds and the Dons do not improve or regress and revert to their xG-based predicted ppg total, we end up with 63pts at the end of the season. Based on previous averages that would only be enough for 4th, but it may well be enough for 3rd this season.
In the event the team maintains their current pace we’re in for 81pts. Enough for 2nd? Not in either of the last two seasons, but possibly enough in 2024/25. However I think we'd all acknowledge, the start we made was unsustainable and it’s probable that the team will not be able to keep that pace up.
Finally, you’ll see the AFC 1903 PPG. This is based on my totally unscientific review of the games and the xG data and determining what I thought a fair and likely outcome may have been. I’ll try and expand on this early next week, but with that we’d safely finish in the top 3.
Milestones
Unlike last season, I think its fair to say relegation is no longer a concern. The next checkpoint would be securing a top six spot, then guaranteed European football (4th), potential group stage football (3rd) and then Champions League qualifiers (2nd). I’m willing to concede that Celtic will win the league.
Using the historical average points totals from above we can make a fair assessment of what’s required.
Top 6: 46pts - 12pts needed (4 wins) - remaining win percentage 18%
Top 4: 58pts - 24pts needed (8 wins) - remaining win percentage 36%
Top 3: 64pts - 30pts needed (10 wins) - remaining win percentage 45%
Top 2: 82pts - 48pts needed (16 wins) - remaining win percentage 72%
Off to a Flyer
There are two main takeaways from this basic analysis. Firstly, the start the team has made has provided a great platfrom for the remainder of the season. We can absorb some drop off.
Secondly, we all were told to be patient. Had results gone exactly as ‘expected’ then we’d be looking at a team in and around the top-6. We’d have seen a manager who has clear ideas on how he wants his team to play in different circumstances and witnessed the improvement of a number of players in the squad. Those would be signs of progress.
It’s my opinion that there are other elements at play that has the xG GD so low and as noted, I think the true performance level is higher. However there is no scientific basis for my thoughts and xG is considered a pretty accurate indicator of performance over time.
Something worth keeping an eye on and I’ll look to check back in on this in a few months.