Down to a coin flip
Heads or tails
Here we are. 37 games later. Jimmy Thelin has become the first Aberdeen manager to start and finish a league season since 2019 or 2020, whichever way you wish to recognise the Covid 19/20 season. The Swede’s maiden season will see Aberdeen finish on 53, 54 or 56 points in fourth or fifth position. Defeat will ensure, in American parlance a .500 record - 15 wins, 15 defeats, eight draws, effectively every match a toss of the coin.
Throughout the season, it has felt like that. A feeling that we couldn’t lose, followed by a feeling that we couldn’t win. That’s kind of what it feel likes again right following a run of three successive defeats and conceding ten goals in the process.
Aberdeen have only managed to beat three teams away from home this season. All three sit in the bottom three places in the league, and all five matches were determined by one goal.
The Midfield
I had intended to write a short post on the midfield after the St. Mirren game, but never got round to it (life and family took priority). The crux of the argument was that with Leighton Clarkson dropping into the back three quite often, but the team conversely looking to try and play long balls, there’s usually a big gap in the middle of the pitch, which I think we can say has been wonderfully illustrated by this heatmap against the Buddies.
That tends to create lots of opportunities for opponents to start attacks by winning second balls. And we can see this in reality in the image below which immediately followed an attempted long pass by Mats Knoester.
A while back, we wondered what would happen if we played Clarkson and Palaversa in midfield in SPFL games. The initial evidence was positive, especially vs. Motherwell, but there are limitations that teams can take advantage of.
Earlier in the season, Nilsen and Shinnie rarely dropped into the back three. Occasionally, the captain would go into a full-back position, but for the most part they retained the box shape with the two centre-backs.
Jamie McGrath
I’m not sure not offering McGrath four years was a good idea (he would have left early anyway), but that’s just me, and let’s hope we’re all laughing at Hibs ineptitude in season 2028/29. They seem to have gotten one over us with Junior Hoillet.
But whilst we’ve got him, I would play him. We can get into the Cup final in due course, but just having an extra stepping stone between the midfield and attack, to get on second balls, with the ability to play in behind, would help in light of the above. He’s a good player.
Managerial Styles
Jonathan Wilson wrote a nice piece on his Substack regarding managerial philosophies:
At some point in the summer, I’ll try and distill all my recaps and thoughts into what we’ve seen from Jimmy Thelin in his first campaign. It might be hard, though. He’s not easy to pin down, yet in some ways he is. Brendan Rodgers and Stephen Robinson, and even Baz the club ambassador seem to have his number.
Jim Goodwin, seems a man much more comfortable in his skin nowadays. We saw with Goodwin how he struggled to try and play a different way with Aberdeen. Maybe things would have been different if he’d made us a turbo St. Mirren. Goodwin lost to junior side Darvel in a Scottish Cup match.
Just as there’s risk, as Wilson points out, in not adapting your style, there’s also a concern with managers who seem to flit between formations to try and gain a reaction, or throwing a lot of shit to the wall and seeing what might stick and Goodwin still seems to fall into this camp, Bazza too. I think David Gray has done very well with Hibs this season. He is quick to point out that the players continued to believe in what they were doing, but he threw the whole plan out up to that point that night at Easter Road. I wonder about the back three system he struck gold with and what that tells us for the future.
This is the classic SPFL change. Managers spend their summers watching the Euros or the World Cup, telling themselves that this is the year they finally develop that expansive and attractive philosophy the fans and chairman have been asking for. Sign the guys to do it. Switch back in late September when reality hits. It’s hard and takes time (note to self).
There’s a difference, of course, in implementing a game plan for one match. Especially if it’s a very important match with a trophy on the line…
Mind you, managers are not that important anymore. It’s about how good you’re algorithm is.
Nicolas Milanovic
Speaking of identifying talent, nice work from the PR team in burying Wednesday night’s bad news. Here you are, enjoy your bread and circuses.
For some, the season will get going after the Cup final. Wee leaks of foreign names appearing on social media. Highlight reels. Counting the ins and outs. Remember, not so long ago, that foreign name was Kristers Tobers (bit harsh, I know, but 700K, nine games, two wins, two clean sheets) or Jeppe Okkels (I’ve finally given up -sorry Jeppe). Our best signing this season was a former SPFL striker.
On Milanovic. God knows. We’ll just have to wait and see. I like the idea. He could be good, he could be crap. Will write something about him in October.
Back to that Coin Flip
Dundee United have not scored in open play against Aberdeen this season.15 of their goals have from set-pieces.
Their average possession is 43.9%. They put the most crosses in and are second in long balls. Their strategy is to reduce the game to a series of corners and long throws, and deep crosses into the box.
This match will be determined by whether Aberdeen can flip the coin in their direction with what seems to be our version of the set-piece expertise - one of our players coming up with something special and whether we can withstand the aerial onslaught.
It will be on that flip that this season of ups and downs will be judged.
COYR - Enjoy the game if you are going. Okkels for the win.
P.S. Thoughts on the Rangers game here.