Cup Final Preview: A Celtic Perspective
James Dailey and Alan Morrison of the Huddle Breakdown on Aberdeen's chances
As it was a special occasion, I wanted to try and offer some Celtic insight into the final, beyond the usual media tropes and tired old personalities. Alan Morrison and James Dailey run the Celtic podcast and blog, the Huddle Breakdown. Though focused on the Parkhead club, they cover other aspects of Scottish football and try, as much as I can see, to eliminate tribal bias in their judgements and coverage.
Their use of data in an insightful and accessible way has been an inspiration for many of the articles on AFC 1903 this season, case in point, it was Alan’s work on the Dons early season shot conversion that gave me some early concerns that the Thelin revolution may not last.
I asked them both a few questions, primarily looking to see whether the Dons had any chance on Saturday. They were generous with their time and their answers. There might be some slivers of hope we can cling on to for the remainder of the week.
Celtic are heavy favorites for the Cup Final. Is there anything from the games this season between the two teams that provides any concerns from a Celtic perspective?
James: I think Aberdeen have the profile of players that can hurt Celtic in the final third – do not believe we have a material advantage athletically from a size/quickness perspective. Players like Morris and Gueye present difficulties, particularly if matched up vs Celtic’s defensive left.
Alan: The first game (2-2) – quick passing through midfield, especially from McGrath was fruitful and exposed Scales badly for goal. But Shinnie/Nilsen were easily overrun in midfield and Dons cramped up after 70 mins of a quite aggressive press.
The Dons were very positive and front foot and my question after was “Does Thelin recognise he got lucky or is he outcome biased and will try the same in the LC Semi final?” He chose the latter path.
Celtic in many ways let Aberdeen have the ball and picked off poor passing, especially out from the back (has this been rectified with new signings?) The message from those two games – don’t try and go toe to toe.
The tightest game was Dec in Aberdeen. BUT – howling gale, driving rain and small pitch combination you won’t get on Saturday. Aberdeen tried a 4-3-3 compact mid-block and were quite effective. But again keep giving ball away when pressing traps worked. Lowest xG diff in this game – 0.87 for Celtic.
The February game Aberdeen again tried to mimic Brugge 4-3-3 mid block with Nisbet man marking McGregor. Again the Dons press went quite well but had poor passing and fluffing transition chances whilst Celtic were clinical on counter. The Dons did not punish successful turnovers.
In the recent 1-5 game – I had no idea on Thelin’s game plan and this would be a worry as would be the attitude of the players – they pressed but very half heartedly. Even little things – reaction of Nisbet on being subbed; not even acknowledging players coming on – signs of discord?
Data wise, which game was the closest and are there any interesting trends/anomalies that Aberdeen could build on?
James: The closest game was the December 4th game at Pittodrie, IMO. While Aberdeen lost the game 1-0, xG difference was well within 1.00 and maintained an xG advantage for most of the first 70 minutes. It was the game with the lowest average defensive line of engagement and the most direct – i.e. Aberdeen did not attempt to play out from the back as much.
Alan: It was the 0-1 in December but that game was strongly shaped by conditions. Make sure you don’t play Shinnie and Nilsen in midfield again. The 4-3-3 midblock brought some success, but you need both good pressers AND good passers and Aberdeen must take chances when they arise.
Following on, which teams/styles/strategies have caused Celtic the most problems this season (I think you mentioned the Brugges mid-block before) - excluding the super clubs etc you’ve played in the Champions League
James: Celtic’s main weakness are on-the-ball building up from the back and progressing through midfield into the attacking third. The teams that have given us the most problems setup to force our CB’s to do something on the ball to advance in buildup.
The problem teams face is that Celtic are so good in transition and off the ball, that there is a risk/reward element which is vital. Maeda and Kuhn, in particular, are lethal at getting in behind via balls over the top and/or throughballs.
This presents several challenges – how high a line does a team play in order to squeeze space and man mark the midfield and fullbacks?
It is not the same risk/reward for all teams. I think the main variable for Aberdeen, and all teams, to consider when calibrating are:
How disciplined is the team with pressing/triggers?
How athletic are the front 7 to execute the man marking of midfield and fullbacks?
How good are the back 4 at offside traps and maintaining line discipline?
How fast are the Aberdeen CB’s and FB’s in order to address the inevitable instances when Celtic’s timing is good at getting in behind?
How good is Mitov at coming off his line to pro-actively come for the balls he should to cover for the high line?
Gavin will have a far better sense on the answers to those questions than I, but from what I have seen and looked at regarding Aberdeen, speed is not a strength and Mitov’s judgement off his line is not a strength either.
Therefore, I would think that what I call an “ambush” period at the beginning of the game where a front-footed pressing approach is taken for the first 10-15 minutes could be worth the risk (but there would be considerable risk) if the strategy is to be smart about getting the ball into Celtic’s box at ALL opportunities – long throws, direct kicks from all viable distances, etc.
Celtic have had an issue with the first 20-30 minutes in most games against teams of all levels, as high-intensity defending and pressing have given us major issues and neutralized our strengths in transition. However, as soon as the marginal drop off via fatigue and/or focus occurs, the 30-45 minute period has often been when Celtic have hurt opponents in transition.
Alan: As mentioned above – the 4-3-3 mid block with selective press – even if Aberdeen only press aggressively in own half but are prepared to spring at pace – my worry watching Ibrox game is Keskinen and Okkels simply not rapid enough and Gueye very erratic.
What do you see us Rodgers biggest selection questions ahead of Saturday’s match?
James: This also highlights the tactical issues referenced in the prior section – with Hatate most likely out injured, he had been the player Rodgers had evolved to deploy as help dropping deep along with McGregor when facing intense pressure/pressing. His ability to get open into space, turn, and deliver balls from deep was a major improvement and carried a threat in transition.
None of Engels, Bernardo, or McCowan provide those dimensions – Engels can be dangerous from deep but is pretty erratic and nowhere near as skillful in getting open or turning on the ball to build the attack.
This is the main selection quandary for Rodgers, IMO – McCowan versus Bernardo. One of my criticisms of Celtic this season has been the relative rigidity of 4-3-3 in possession, and I think Hatate’s absence further highlights this issue. McGregor+Engels in a double pivot with McCowan as the 10/2nd striker could be more effective, in my opinion – requiring less of Engels in moving back from the more advanced attacking 8 role. However, I am skeptical any changes will occur at this point. My preference is for McCowan over Bernardo, but view it as the better of two unsatisfactory options. Engels and Bernardo together would be the midfield I would want to see as an Aberdeen supporter.
Alan: Whether to start McCowan or Bernardo instead of Hatate. Bernardo provides structure and energy. McCowan provides randomness and risk-taking.
Forrest has a real chance of starting on right instead of Kuhn who seems ready for the off. But I think he’ll start Kuhn with Forrest getting 30m. Could play Kuhn, Forrest and Maeda and drop down Idah but he won’t.
Anything else you think might be of interest to Aberdeen fans?
James: I do not see much utility in the matchup for a left sided wide player, whether that be Okkels or Keskinen. I’d be more worried as a Celtic supporter if some mix of McGrath and Gueye were central/inverted off their attacking left, with Morris wide right.
Once an ambush period exhausts, I would be worried if Aberdeen settle back into something like a 4-5-1 and play relatively direct targeting Celtic’s defensive left in transitions and with long/high balls.
With Hatate likely out, and my guess being Rodgers goes with a front three of Maeda/Idah/Kuhn, Celtic could have major issues trying to break down a disciplined and narrow defense, and rely upon Mitov’s shot stopping on any long distance shots that happen to get through.
Lastly, using all set pieces as potential chance creation opportunities would worry me, as I do not believe Celtic have a relative “chaos in the box” advantage relative to size/quickness.
Alan: At 1.18 per game, Aberdeen are worst team in league at generating what hudlstatsbomb call “Clear Shots” – “Shots generated when only the opponent's goalkeeper was in between shot-taker and goal. (Within a cone between the shot-taker and the goalposts.)”
Aberdeen are quite good at limiting opposition passing – 74% average – 3rd best in league. Dons 2nd worst in league for xG conceded from set piece – 0.37 per game.
The main strength is in pressing and counter-pressing - both in volume and in regains therefrom. And strong in pressing in opposition half – but beware what happened in Cup Semi.. The trouble is then what happens when win ball back! Aberdeen are only 7th best in counter attacking shots and 8th best in high press shots.
A “luck “ indicator is Aberdeen have experienced the worst shot On Ball Value against of any team – each teams shots average -0.15 OBV per game – which suggest awful shot choice or execution from Aberdeen’s opponents.
My thanks to Alan and James for their time. I will have a preview in the P&J later in the week and a small preview piece on Friday. Enjoy the week, fill your cup up with optimism, life is too short.