Bring me Sunshine

Some thoughts on FCSB and a Falkirk Preview

A tough week all round for us Dandies for reasons you don’t know need me to go in to. Let’s hope the next few days bring some reasons for positivity and optimism for the season ahead.

FCSB Thoughts

Shape

In the end, Jimmy did surprise us a little bit with the line-up. Polvara was deployed on the left of the attacking three and we saw the potential threat he offered in the box with two headers at the back post.

In the build up, Palaversa seemed to take some higher positions than normal. At times it looked more like a 4-3-3 with Shinnie as the older. At other times, they kept Aouchiche and Polvara higher on the left.

Shinnie as holder, Palaversa a bit higher than normal

If we look at the above picture it does seem to me that the team is trying a lot to play that long ball in behind, which seems like a tough one to make. However, it’s possible that the goal is maybe to win the second ball and attack the opponent when they are out of their shape.

In the example above, it went long to Jensen who didn’t win the header but the Dons won the second ball and it did land at Polvara who then turned it over. I’ll be keeping an eye on this.

Dealing with the first half and 11v11, out of possession, the boys did very well, keeping compact and forcing lots of long balls. I think there’s been some good progression in this area so far this season.

Jensen

I think there has been enough said about the VAR. From my perspective, the controllable issue from an Aberdeen perspective is Jensen getting completely caught out with a 50-yard pass. The FCSB wide man held his width well, then timed a sharp run across the last line. Ditto, the pass was well played out the back, but it needs to be cut out without bouncing through. I would also point some blame at Sokler who did not press the ball with the intensity we may have wished for. And maybe the distances/relationship between Knoester and Jensen could have been better too.

The microscope is starting to shift onto the young Dane, and indeed Jimmy’s signings in general. We’ll have to wait and see how things progress. He certainly did well last spring, but I think it’s also fair to have some concerns based on what we’ve seen so far this season. There’s a place for a middle ground in such discussions. He was involved in a lot of our good play going forward, see the Sokler chance for starters.

One hobby horse of mine is his inability to clear his lines. A proper football man opinion but I wish he’d stop putting the ball into bad areas. He had the chance to belt it clear versus Hearts on matchday one and he had another one on Thursday with a header in the first half.

Naivety

Jensen, of course was on a booking after taking out a man needlessly in my opinion. This was an example of the rawness the team showed in such an environment. Sure the FCSB players were milking it but the amount of needless fouls Aberdeen players made across the two legs was alarming and frustrating. Just stand up and keep your hands to yourselves lads.

Sivert Nilsen trying to play a quick one-touch pass instead of calming down the game before the third goal was another. We’ll need to be a bit more streetwise when the group stages start.

Better meddle wi' the de'il

I have a good friend- Graham Rennie, who’s a big Falkirk fan. He previously worked in the Falkirk Academy, holds a UEFA A License, and is halfway through an MSc in Performance Analysis so he knows his stuff. He has kindly written a preview for me.

Falkirk Perspective from Graham Rennie

The Bairns make the journey up to Aberdeen with a mix of excitement and trepidation. The joy of being back in the big time after a 15-year absence is mixed with a realisation that this could be a very difficult season.

After all the flag day euphoria and a good performance against a Dundee United side (who were still finding their feet after a massive squad overhaul) on the opening day, we came crashing back down to Earth with a disappointing result (and performance) away to Livingston and a comprehensive loss at Parkhead in the League Cup.

Predicted Falkirk Lineup

This predicted team sees Mackie in at left back for McCann and Arfield back in from the start instead of Cartwright. Ex-Don Ethan Ross came off v Livingston and has a serious injury, so Agyeman is likely to play unless one of the new signings that came in on Friday come into the team. McGlynn went to a 5-3-2 twice in away games last season at Raith and Livvy and with Ross out this might be a small possibility, but more than likely he will stick to the 4-2-3-1.

Playing Style

Falkirk have received a lot of plaudits for their open, expansive attacking style in the last couple of years. However, nine goals against in three games indicates that, at some point, John may well need to be a bit more cautious in his approach in the top flight.

The glaring issue in all three games has been how vulnerable we look when we lose possession. Tait and Spencer like to get forward and often leave huge gaps in central midfield that enable the opposition to break on us. I expect this to be an issue at Pittodrie. The channel between Adams (RB) and Neilson (RCB) has also been exploited by all opponents too. Expect Miller and Agyeman to play as inverted wingers and the fullbacks to offer the width. Despite all the plaudits for keeping the ball on the deck, Falkirk will still play up to MacIver and play off the second ball on occasion.

Prediction

I honestly think this is the perfect game for Aberdeen, coming back from their European game. I can see a very difficult day for our lads. I hope we can sneak a 1-1!

Thanks to Graham for the insight However, it should be noted that he is afflicted with the same disease as me (and I’m sure a good few of you reading) in regards to his own team, the glass is, on most occasions, half-full.

With that in mind, I’m actually quite worried about Falkirk who are a good football team. However, as noted versus Dundee Utd, they looked wide open on transition. Given Thelin’s background, how we seem to be building this team, some of the good stuff we saw versus Celtic, if this Aberdeen team, cannot exploit transition opportunities in this situation then we have some major worries.

Team Selections

I do think one issue that’s happening right now is the lack of consistency in the team selections. I understand we’ve had injuries to deal with but it feels like we’re making it up a bit as we go along and I don’t feel like this is helping the development of the team. It’s early days, I know (and yes, I know Morton and FCSB were almost like-for-like).

Take the back four today. There’s probably around six or seven different combinations when you factor in Molloy, Devlin, Shinnie, Jensen, Milne, Dorrington and Knoester. Before we even get to Gyafmi and Tobers and Frame (!). On to midfield. Shinnie, Clarkson, Nilsen, Palaversa, Polvara. With rumours Sokler is on his bike then at least we can be fairly confident (not sure that’s the right word) that Yengi will start.

10 out of our 11 starters in Romania were here last season, eight were here last summer, five played under Barry Robson.

I’d like to think that Thelin has an ideal starting line-up in his head and that events are conspiring against him. It’s also fully plausible to have certain players earmarked for certain types of games, e.g. Clarkson plays deeper in games we expect to have more of the ball. And finally, we can leave room for a player in-form to earn their spot. Again, a while to go but let’s see how this progresses.

Predicted Line-Up

As I’ve said, with the number of positions not nailed down I would be as well asking AI to give us a line-up. Actually, I did. Here’s what it gave me.

Here’s a predicted Aberdeen XI vs Falkirk based on league form, Thelin’s approach, midweek minutes in Romania, and opponent weaknesses:

Formation: 4-3-3

GK:

• Dimitar Mitov

Defence:

• RB: Nicky Devlin

• CB: Richard Jensen

• CB: Angus MacDonald (fresh legs after Thursday)

• LB: Jack Milne

Midfield:

• DM: Leighton Clarkson (anchor, even after heavy minutes, Thelin relies on him)

• CM: Dante Polvara (brings energy, likely rotated in)

• CM: Connor Barron (pressing and ball-winning)

Attack:

• RW: Duk (stretch Falkirk’s back line, off the shoulder to exploit offside trap weakness)

• CF: Ester Sokler (gives Bojan Miovski a rest after Romania)

• LW: Topi Keskinen (width + pressing)

So the good news is the machines aren’t coming for us humble bloggers yet. Here’s my 'PREDICTED' not ‘PREFERRED’ team.

Predicted Aberdeen XI

Looking Good and Starting Well

It seems that we start games consistently fairly well. We play some nice stuff, maybe we even have a good chance and then it all starts to go gradually wrong. It was the case again on Thursday. Aberdeen had a great chance via Sokler and failed to take it. It was the same in the first leg and against Celtic.

The fear for this game is that this happens again. Falkirk then get time to find their feet and start playing through the thirds. Tiredness from Thursday starts to kick in and frustration from the stands becomes apparent.

Miller is a talented player, Arfield has a knack for arriving in the box as we well know and Spencer is capable of dictating play. Agyeman is a strong ball carrier and a potential matchup with Jensen, after the week he has had, could be one to watch.

As I mentioned earlier, the Dons have been doing better out of possession but, as we said before FCSB also, for this to really work we need to take advantage of those moments when we can either break quickly or disrupt the opponents build-up. This will be a good opportunity, to work on these aspects.

Tuesday Morning

If we’re waking up on Tuesday morning with less then 3pts on the board and young Mitchell Frame as our last signing of the window, we may be in for an interesting few months. Let’s hope all the boys can get down to business in the next 48hrs.

Enjoy the game. COYR.

Here’s your Sunday wake-up cup of nostalgia.