A Rabbit Hole on Goal Kicks

Short vs Long. Elfsborg v Aberdeen. SPFL v Aberdeen.

The Dons are on a bad run. A common theme over this period (not in all games) has been the team’s struggles when faced with a high press. I haven’t validated this with any data other than the eye-test but we’ve all seen the games. They are not necessarily losing the ball at the top of their own box but they are struggling to progress it forward into the opposition half on a regular basis. Motherwell was an improvement.

The initial plan for this rambling post was to watch some more Elfsborg, analyse some of their build-up patterns and see if I could connect the dots between past Thelin-Elfsborg and current Thelin-Aberdeen to project a plan for future Thelin Aberdeen.

As a simple example we might see that Elfsborg pass between the centre-back and full-back and then go long to a centre forward and then apply some of that logic to some of the growing pains Aberdeen are dealing with on this front.

However that proved a bit tricky as I picked random games to watch in the hope the keeper might go short and it wasn’t the most fruitful expedition. Accordingly I had to find a way to narrow down that process and the data gathered to allow me to do so was fairly interesting/kept me busy so I thought I’d share that to begin with. What was meant to be tactics ‘content’ is more graphs and tables, so apologies in advance if that’s not your cup of tea. This is pretty niche.

Building out from the Back

If we’re looking at building out from the back, we’ve got to consider a distinction between taking short goal-kicks where an opponent has time to set up a high press versus in open-play using the goalkeeper to recycle the ball, potentially stretch an opponent’s out of possession structure and create more depth in possession. Like this lovely example below of Elfsborg away to Malmo.

Unfortunately, it’s a bit harder to break these down so that’s not covered in this post.

But, I was able to get information on the type of goal kick a goalie plays broken down into short versus long via my friend’s Wyscout account. As far as I could tell they define a short goal kick as a short pass (less than 40m).

Accordinly I wanted to see how often Thelin went short at Elfsborg and compare it to Aberdeen, using this as a proxy for ‘intent’ to build out from the back, which is probably too broad an assumption - the centre-back could easily launch it once he receives from the keeper and I have no data to present on the next possession, short or long.

However it’s the best I’ve got and I think it provides a fairly good guide in relation to intentions with the ball. I’ll cut to the chase.

Short versus Long

Here’s the breakdown of how Jimmy’s goalkeepers distributed the ball from 2020 to 2024. (Please note 2021 is a little lower as the main keeper only started 25 out of 30 games - I figured out how to do averages later). A reminder Sweden only plays 30 games per season so keep that in your back pocket for the last eight matches of the SPFL.

Here’s the percentages:

There’s a decent amount of variation there. For reference Elfsborg finished 2nd (2020), 4th (2021), 6th (2022) and 2nd (2023). We can see that Aberdeen are taking more short goal kicks than Elfsborg did with the exception of Thelin’s debut season. Part of his initial team building plan?

Here’s the breakdown of Elfsborg by opponent level faced:

And here’s an Aberdeen comparison for this season based on current league position. The Dons numbers probably skewed a little by Hearts position in bottom 4.

So a simple conclusion is that Thelin adapts his approach depending on the quality of the opponent. Probably too early to make a call on whether this holds for his time at Aberdeen but signs are there.

Here’s possession mapped against number of short goal kicks which, at least for Elfsborg blows my theory of short goal kick = possession based team, out of the water.

There’s no noticeable difference in total possession compared to the type of goal-kicks taken - all Elfsborg teams were under 50% average possession. Aberdeen are currently at 53.7%.

Closer to Home

Since I was at this, I looked at what the most common starting Keeper for each team does on goal kicks across the SPFL. Probably no real surprises here.

Summary

• Aberdeen generally are taking more short goal kicks than Thelin’s Elfsborg teams (averaged across his four full seasons)

• Thelin historically tends to adapt his approach depending on the quality of the opponent and appears to be doing so at Aberdeen

• Aberdeen 24/25 generally have more possession than Thelin’s Elfsborg teams

• There was no clear correlation at Elfsborg between number of short goal-kicks and average possession

• According to type he would likely go longer at Ibrox next week. Stay tuned.

• Things will evolve. I’d think. It’s possible that an important part of his long-term strategy is establishing the ability to play from the keeper, to then open up opportunities in other parts of the pitch?

• Aberdeen on average only have 7 goal kicks per game. Is this even that important?

Next Steps

The next games will certainly provide more context in relation to all of the above. Both opponents will likely press high. What will Aberdeen do? I’m intrigued.

With a midweek game next week, part two of this (with video clips) is probably going to be on the back burner but here’s one I found from a goal-kick for Elfsborg away at Arnie Slot’s Feyenoord. Didn’t amount to much but you can see the patience from the keeper and centre-back, how the centre-forward dropped into the space and the high positions of the wingers.

Longer passes from the back, centre-forward dropping, wingers going high and narrow seems a common theme, from the footage I did view. Immediate thought is we need someone who can pass accurately from the back (Tobers?) and a forward who can get on the end of it.

More to come. Congrats for making it this far.

COYR

All data via Fotmob or Wyscout