Time for the Q3 Earnings report. This one will have the shareholders reeling. Here’s your standard primer below.

If you want to save yourself some time - this season has, so far, fallen below expectations, but in the interest of fan writing integrity, I’m going to see this through.

There’s also some quick notes on Stephen Robinson’s first game at the end.

To summarize the aim was to create a simple means of measurement across a few barometers purely related to data. The goal being to separate emotion and look at things objectively.

The targets were set for a third-placed finish based on historical data. You can also see the 10-game numbers below and the 20-game numbers. As it turns out, Game 20 was Thelin’s last as Aberdeen boss. So we have a pretty good barometer of the post-Jimmy period with these updated numbers.

This was a difficult stretch of games with six out of the ten against top 6 opponents but the form fell of a cliff to some degree and that’s why we’re in the predicament we’re in.

1. Points per game

Aberdeen 2024/25: 53pts (1.39pg)
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 61.56pts (1.62pts per game)

10 game Actual: 1pt per game
20 game Actual: 1.25pts per game
30 game Actual: 1pt per game (-0.62pts per game behind target)

The milestones we were aiming for were:

After 10 games: 16.2pts (actual 10)
After 20 games: 32.4pts (actual 25)

The 30 game target was 48.6pts. Obviously that has not happened.

Expected Points

As is my want, I like to recreate last season’s expected points mapping.

Last year the nerd numbers were right. After 20 games we were

This year, after 20 games the Dons were meeting their expected points. Post-Thelin there’s been a departure suggesting some bad luck on the account of Leven, Docherty and even Robinson based on yesterday’s result. The Dons are currently 6pts worse off than they ‘should’ be. We’re just using FotMob data here but I expect other models are similar.

*I’ve noticed a flaw in this analysis as the xG points adjust as the season goes along, so I’m presenting my version below at 1.2xpts and also the per game version from stats.afc1903.com.

Aberdeen 2024/25: 1.21 xPts per game
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 1.66 xPts per game

After 10 games: 1.4xPts per game
Games 11-20: 1.2xPts per game
20 game actual: 1.3xPts per game
30 game actual: 1.2xPts per game

This time last out, after 20 games we suggested based on the available evidence, that the Dons might be at 39pts after 30 games. The data currently suggest we should be at 36pts.

Side note - Robinson’s St. Mirren are showing on the FotMob table (at the time of writing) as -12pts than expected. It’s been quite a strange year for the old expected points table, Hibs currently sit in third above Hearts so make of that what you will.

Goals, Goals Conceded, Goal Difference

Aberdeen 2024/25: 48 GF, 61 GA, -13 GD
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 0.32+ GD per game (+12 at end of season)
After 10 games: 7 GF, 11 GA, -4 GD
Games 11-20: 13 GF, 13 GA, 0 GD
20 game actual: 20GF, 24 GA, -4GD
30 game actual: 30GF, 42 GA, -12GD

xG, XGA, xGD

Aberdeen are underperforming their Expected Goals. The bad news: this is offset by an overperformance in Expected Goals Against.

Aberdeen 2024/25: -0.4xGD per game (-15xGD at end of season)
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 0.32+ xGD per game (+12 at end of season)
Target: 0.32+ xGD per game (+12 at end of season)

After 10 games: +0.11xGD per game (projected +4.18GD at end of season)
After 20 games: -0.16xGD per game (projected -6GD at end of season)
After 30 games: -0.42xGD per game (projected -15GD at end of season_

Shots on Target

Aberdeen 2024/25: 3.8 shots on target per game
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 4.2 shots on target per game

After 10 games: 3.6 shots on target per game
After 20 games: 3.9 shots on target per game
After 30 games: 3.6 shots on target per game

Clean Sheets

Aberdeen 2024/25: 8 clean sheets
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 14 clean sheets
Actual: 7 clean sheets

Four clean sheets after ten games. Two from Games 11-20. One from Game 21-30.

Robbo

I don’t think there’s much more to be said on Robinson’s appointment that hasn’t already been covered. I agree with the general consensus, bad planning, seems reactionary but time to get behind the man. These all seem to be a bit of a toss-up anyway.

There’s a lot more data now on stats.afc1903.com. You can compare a lot of things but here’s his first game yesterday compared to the season averages:

And this one is probably not a big surprise:

Additional features since last release (all data shown from Falkirk game)

Player Passing Breakdowns

Touch Heat Maps

Lineup Analysis (request from reader Skirdy Loon)

If anything looks off, or if there’s anything you’d like to add please let me know. I’m going to try and previous season’s data in as well to offer some better comparisons.

Let’s get through this together. COYR.

It was a disappointing end to the Swede’s tenure with the story to broken by a Glasgow rag a good hour or so before the club’s official statement.

Being fair, with a new Sporting Director in place, money spent, the club was in a stick or twist position given the relative mediocrity we’ve seen for most of 2025 in the SPFL. We don’t know what would have happened had Jimmy stayed in place but there was substantial evidence to suggest things would not have improved to the minimum expectations of the club and the fans.

There will be more time to look to the future but for now its time to acknowledge the past.

Top 10 Jimmy Thelin Moments at Aberdeen

This blog is effectively a story of Jimmy’s time with the Dons. Here’s my top 10 moments. I’ve tried to add some balance across his whole time in charge.

10. First half v Rangers (April 2025)

In many ways this a microcosm of the whole thing. A great first period, a downturn, false hope in the second half (Nisbet’s disallowed third) and then a limp finish.

But for 45 minutes it was a lot of fun. Keskinen roasting McCausland, Clarkson with a Madison-esque free-kick and a classic Shady Mo assist to the enigma of Pape Gueye. All whilst a sulking Bazza watches on.

9. Dundee 4–0 (October 2025)

Ah Dundee. Where would we be without you. Five wins out of five for Jimmy against the Dark Blues.

I wanted to put something in for this season. It seemed in the first half, that maybe it was all going to click after all as we got the monkey off our back for the season. Karlsson showing his class, Gyamfi giving us optimism. It came hard on the heels of the decent showing against Shakhtar and preceded the Lazetic St. Mirren match. Ah well.

8. Motherwell 4–1 (March 2025)

This was a commanding performance to secure a top-6 spot and happened right slap back in the middle of a one-defeat in twelve run last spring. Clarkson on the day was terrific pulling the strings in a deeper role as the Dons played great football, had lots of shots on target and scored four goals.

7. Nisbet last minute vs Ross County (August 2024)

There were warning signs here of course. Little attacking threat, Mitov saving a penalty. But what can top a last-minute winner in the sunshine, just before the International break to keep us joint-top.

6. Dundee 2–1 (September 2024)

This I think was the game that launched Thelin-Mania outside of Aberdeen. Two counter-attacking goals delivered at blistering speed. It was a 12th consecutive win in all competitions. Nisbet was starting to cook and Keskinen looked like a star in the making.

5. Palaversa vs Hearts (October 2024)

The cracks really start to appear here as Liam Fox’s Hearts caused the Dons a lot of problems, disrupting the build-up and missing a number of good chances before they eventually went 2-1 ahead.

But the Dons, as was their way at the time fought back. Nicky Devlin continued his great attacking influence with an equaliser before Duk, made his return to the team and set up new boy Ante Palaversa to thunder the winner home in the 88th minute.

4. Dabbagh Winner at Hampden (April 2025)

Oday Dabbagh, you came, you saw, you conquered. After an even first-half, Hearts going down to ten men made for an extremely tense second period. Dante Polvara came on and made an impact, as did Jeppe Okkels but it was the Palestinian forward who made the difference, staying onside to poke him the rebound from Jack Milne’s shot. Not the last time he’d hit the net at that end.

3. Rangers 2–1 (October 2024)

A glorious night at Pittodrie when the Dons were vastly superior to the visitors. Devlin again grabbing a goal. McGrath’s woeful penalty miss seemed to have extinguished the pre-match fireworks as the Dons allowed the opposition to equalise in the second half. But up stepped Shady Mo, to win the match, keep the Dons top and open up a 9pt gap to Phillipe Clement’s side.

2. Celtic 2-2 (October 2024)

Two perfect sides meeting for a top of the table decider. It had the feel of a boxing match, the contender versus the challenger. In truth, the Dons would have suffered a heavy points defeat had it been in the ring. Thelin’s men were put in their place in the first half as normal service appeared to resume.

The second half will live long in the memory. Ester Sokler’s rare great finish, followed by Shinnie silencing Celtic Park. For a flicker, it even looked like Duk had put us ahead before VAR intervened. Desperate defending at the end secured the point. At that moment, it seemed like anything might be possible.

1. Scottish Cup Victory

There’s not much that can be said that hasn’t already been said here so just sit back and watch the highlights one more time.

Those last two sum up the positive face of the Jimmy tenure. What Hearts are feeling with Jamestown and Motherwell with JBA is the hope that maybe there are some cheat codes to achieving amazing things in Scottish Football. At Celtic Park in October, it seemed like we had that at Aberdeen. I felt that things would only get better, when Thelin got his own men in and had more time to imprint his system. The opposite was true.

And yet, at Hampden, with that hope diminished, he delivered silverware. The prize that, when you stop believing in miracles, is probably the biggest we can win the way things are. Jimmy, and his team won it.

Cheers min.

Another defeat for the Dons yesterday. For those of you shoveling snow at least you can get back to that more enjoyable activity now you don’t have to watch Aberdeen. Or maybe you’re just doomscrolling. Or even trying to identify which Egos are the Enemy.

This is not a review of the Falkirk game, instead, now the Dons have played 20 games, it’s time to do the second check-in on the KPIs set at the start of the season. For a refresher, please see the original post below.

To summarize the aim was to create a simple means of measurement across a few barometers purely related to data. The goal being to separate emotion and look at things objectively.

The targets were set for a third-placed finish based on historical data. You can also see the 10-game numbers below. Its doubtful 62pts will be good enough for third this year but we can only control what we can control.

1. Points per game

Aberdeen 2024/25: 53pts (1.39pg)
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 61.56pts (1.62pts per game)

10 game Actual: 1pt per game (-6.2)
20 game Actual: 1.25pts per game

Worth noting our last 10 games have been 1.5pts (15 total) so we have been getting closer to the target.

The milestones we were aiming for were:

After 10 games: 16.2pts (actual 10)
After 20 games: 32.4pts (actual 25)

The 30 game target is 48.6pts. We will need 23pts from 30 to get to that number.

Expected Points

As is my want, I like to recreate last season’s expected points mapping.

Last year the nerd numbers were right. This year, it’s taken 20 games and we’re pretty much there again. The silver lining this year was that we were better than our points suggested, but that’s because our actual points were so bad. In order to prove the point somewhat, and I did not expect this to be perfect, here’s what I said in the 10-game check-in (broken clocks, blind squirrels etc.)

Here’s the expected points mapped out then for 25/26.

We’re just using FotMob data here but I expect other models are similar.

Aberdeen 2024/25: 1.21 xPts per game
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 1.66 xPts per game

After 10 games: 1.4xPts per game
Games 11-20: 1.2xPts per game
20 game actual: 1.3xPts per game

Based on the available evidence, we can suggest the Dons might be at 39pts after 30 games. Extrapolate that out to the split mark (33 games) and we’re at 43pts. Possibly enough for split, but will be tight. We’ve over-performed last ten matches.

Goals, Goals Conceded, Goal Difference

Aberdeen 2024/25: 48 GF, 61 GA, -13 GD
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 0.32+ GD per game (+12 at end of season)
After 10 games: 7 GF, 11 GA, -4 GD
Games 11-20: 13 GF, 13 GA, 0 GD
20 game actual: 20GF, 24 GA, -4GD

There’s a clear split between the top 5 and the remainder of the league in terms of GD. Goals win games. This is not great. Maybe we’re just missing chances?

xG, XGA, xGD

The good news: Aberdeen are underperforming their Expected Goals. The bad news: this is offset by an overperformance in Expected Goals Against.

Aberdeen 2024/25: -0.4xGD per game (-15xGD at end of season)
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 0.32+ xGD per game (+12 at end of season)
Target: 0.32+ xGD per game (+12 at end of season)

After 10 games: +0.11xGD per game (projected +4.18GD at end of season)
After 20 games: -0.16xGD per game (projected -6GD at end of season)

Things are getting worse on this front.

Shots on Target

Aberdeen 2024/25: 3.8 shots on target per game
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 4.2 shots on target per game

After 10 games: 3.6 shots on target per game
After 20 games: 3.9 shots on target per game

So actually a bit of an uptick here over the last ten matches. I was intrigued by this, so here’s the breakdown.

It did seem like the attacking intent/success was being layered upon the defensive solidity right around that St. Mirren/Dundee/Kilmarnock but it’s since walked over towards a steep verge and in the last two games fallen off that cliff. Tricky to put a positive spin on zero shots on target.

For more background on this I wrote some articles last season this probably being the most in-depth piece i did last year. Aberdeen’s current shot conversion is 7.9% (total shots/goals) which is pretty low. Averages are typically around 11%.

Clean Sheets

Aberdeen 2024/25: 8 clean sheets
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 14 clean sheets
Actual: 6 clean sheets

Doing better here but we had four clean sheets after ten games. We’ve only managed two in the last ten.

Summary

We’re now past the mid-point of the season. Though the league table can be prone to lying and it might be telling a wee fib in regards to Aberdeen’s 8th place, it’s just a wee one. As the numbers suggest, Aberdeen right now are borderline top 6 outfit, just as they were last season.

Things could improve but I’d advise caution. Of the next ten games, perhaps potential wins over Kilmarnock (A), Livingston (H) and Dundee (H). As things stand, I can’t see much optimism for the others. Take a look yourselves.

There’s plenty more discourse on the manager’s future online and no doubt everyone has their own opinion. But things just aren’t much fun at the moment.

At some point, in the future I’ll really try and drill down into the myths of Jimmy’s glorious 11 game run at the start of last season but I will offer this article written after the Nisbet winner vs Ross County.

I’ve never really felt Thelin’s Aberdeen were a high-pressing outfit but at the point they did rank 2nd (behind Rangers) in ‘Possession won final 3rd per match’ with a score of 4.5 regains per match. Only four games in mind you.

Right now, we are 12 of 12 in the same metric. 2.3 regains per match.

Fun week ahead. COYR.

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My last post a few weeks back took a fairly positive tone I’d say. It was immediately followed by a 2-1 win over Kilmarnock, however defeats have now followed, admittedly in tough places to Sparta Prague, Celtic and now Hibs. A point against Dundee Utd at home on Saturday sees us hit the mid-point of the season on 25pts.

Hibs Thoughts

I don’t have the time or energy to watch back full games anymore but I did watch the opening 20 minutes of the second-half to see if there was anything major to pick up on, given that Hibs turned the screw in this period of the match.

Jimmy lamented the transitions and you can obviously see why. From my perspective you seem to have a bit of a disjointed midfield and a back line too nervous to commit to anything.

Between the Lines

The first two images are in more settled possession where the Hibs midfielder has been able to find a little pocket of space behind the Aberdeen midfield and is then able to drive at the defence.

The Dons plan seemed to be to let Hanley have the ball and then go man-to-man in the midfield. There were certainly some aimless long balls from the Scotland centre-half, but at times he was able to find a man.

This (below) is immediately following an Aberdeen goal-kick. Jensen took a bad touch, the ball was recovered and Mulligan received just before half-way.

Which then let to this situation, which might look familiar.

You could proffer that young Kjartansson should have been in those spaces but at I didn’t strike me that he was being asked to sit in front of the back five and protect. With the marking assignments, often he was the highest midfielder out of possession. I could be wrong, perhaps he was. Maybe thats was why he was subbed.

Right-Side

I’m not totally sure what the plan is to defend in wide areas but Hibs seemed to have some ideas to exploit it. Jensen didn’t really know where to turn and Devlin was pretty wary of stepping out beyond the white line of the box. Elie Youan seemed to sit out there quite a bit and found some space.

In the below, he was called offside but its tight (!). The Hibs man on the ball went long but he could just as easily found McGrath to feet. Jensen’s not sure why he came here tonight but he’s got a feeling that something ain’t right.

Later on we had two situations where Jack Iredale the Hibs LCB made overlapping runs and Jamie McGrath had little trouble finding him.

And then…

The first one is quite a mess.

How do you solve it? I’d say, Devlin needs to be more willing to defend in wider areas assuming he has cover from Milne and the whole back line slides over. Or, Jensen defends deeper and the midfielders cover more ground to force play back. But most of all it just seems like some nervous players not really clear on their roles but perhaps also in how to deal with certain scenarios.

Devlin might need a break. Surely Dorrington can step in?

The First Goal

Hibs’ opener would be one you’d be quite happy with if it was scored by men in red but that doesn’t mean you can’t complain. Steve Cowan on RedTV laid the initial blame at Stuart Armstrong for a misplaced pass at the start of the move. I don’t know if it was totally on him, rather just not being quite on same page as Aouchiche. But anyway, ok fair enough. Hibs get it then Mulligan wrestles off the challenges (won’t let him get away with that again), one pass later and Hibs are running at the Dons defence.

Youan ends up with it here.

It’s not a swarm is it? 4 Hibs v 6 Aberdeen. Can we hope for better defending? Maybe here too?

Maybe even here?

The Fightback

I’m not even sure Hibs were that good but they didn’t really have to be. The Dons managed four shots on goal in the second half, none of which hit the target with all of them coming in ‘garbage time’ i.e. from minute 93 to 97.

At least Keskinen and Bilalovic made me feel something. Some pace, some players hitting the by-line, god I miss that. End product wasn’t much to write home about but at least it was a flicker.

Drawing Conclusions

Earlier in this spring I wrote about Leighton Clarkson’s vintage performance against Motherwell. Clarkson never gets a kick these days. Likewise his Cup Final midfield partner Ante Palaversa. Marko Lazetic looked like a solid front man against Dundee. He had a couple of nice touches yesterday but for the most part was bullied. The list goes on. You name the player, there’s promise and then there’s disappointment and it’s hard to really know where you stand with any of them any more, nor who is to blame.

Jimmy

The prosecution in the case against Jimmy may well be submitting new evidence to the Judge. My hunch is that he will be given this window and six months to show us what the plan was meant to be.

In his defence he may cite the following:

• Poor recruitment (is he blameless? Don’t think so)

• European football demands - I think it’s fair. This Aberdeen team has performed better domestically than any ‘group stage’ outfit over the past four seasons

• Bad luck - Krister Tobers was the marquee defensive signing last January and he’s spent most of his Aberdeen tenure on the treatment table. Gyamfi too. Not much beyond that though?

The narrative will be that the team changed shape to get through a difficult period but January will allow them to find the pieces required to fix things.

Win at Falkirk things change a bit. Get anything vs the Rangers and we’re all a bit happier. We’ll be alright. Top 6. Qualifiers in July. Get your passport ready.

On the Flip Side

The Motherwell v Celtic game was live on US TV, so I flicked over at half-time. Motherwell were brave. Pressing high, playing with no fear, progressing the ball well through clever rotations. It’s hard not to be impressed nor envious at the job Jens Berthel Askou is doing.

On our end it’s been 18 months. Do any of us really know what’s going on? More to follow.

Happy Hogmanay.

Though most of those victories were hard won, some were grittier than others. The last two games, offered more encouragement that maybe a plan is coming together with more scope than just tightening up the back line. Here’s hoping anyway.

Like Aberdeen’s form at the start of the season, this blog has dropped off of a cliff. I mentioned before more demands on my time (not sure where I found the hours last season) but I did take a closer look at the first half vs. Dundee as well as some mental notes from St. Mirren. Here goes.

The Attacking Structure

Despite the change from last season’s 4‑2‑3‑1 to the current 5‑4‑1 / 3‑4‑3 shape, Aberdeen still maintain a similar attacking structure. This was a hot topic last season and I offered the following images to suggest how Thelin likes the shape to look in the final third.

I would venture now, and this, as always is a fairly simplistic view, more like this:

This mirrors the inverted wingers/inside forwards (Jesper Karlsson and Stuart Armstrong) from last season, with the width coming from the fullbacks (Dylan Lobban and Alexander Jensen).

This 3-2-5 structure is quite common amongst the more dominant possession-based clubs, or at least it used to be. So in terms of the roles and responsibilities, there remains a fair amount of consistency for certain positions.

Where’s the #10

The transaction that has taken place here is the movement of the #10 to become an additional defender. Last season, the role rotated between Jamie McGrath, Leighton Clarkson, and Pape Gueye. The profiles were a bit different and how they interpreted their jobs was too. Gueye, was mainly an additional striker and as the graphic shows we now have less men in that central area.

Adil Aouchiche, brought in to be that #10 is now operating in a deeper area. I’m not sure the classic Riquelme dictator of play we associate with the older days of the 4-2-3-1 has ever really been a success in Scotland but particularly with Thelin as it seemed the team rarely attempted to get that player on the ball in those areas.

Aouchiche now has a dual responsibility: arriving late in the box while still functioning as a deeper No. 8/6. He has been on the end of a few good chances over the course of the season but on Saturday he also showed the final‑third quality needed to make a difference.

Dante Polvara also deserves credit of course. The last couple of games have been a positive for this pair, let’s hope it continues.

The back-five too is quite fluid. Against St. Mirren Knoester was almost a left back, as Devlin and Milne became centre-backs and Jensen pushed on to left-wing. Getting Gyamfi back fit, would provide more natural width and athleticism on that side.

Relationism and Positionalism

There are some corners of the internet where there exists fervent passion over two doctrines on the game. I would not want to wade in to this debate and I certainly don’t have a dog in the fight (look up the two terms above if you want to go down a rabbit hole) but a basic summary might be that relationism is not about strict positioning (e.g. peak Guardiola) but more about players ‘relations’ on the pitch.

In the Dons case I would say this applies to Karlsson and Armstrong. We saw them both drift across the front-line vs Dundee, particularly Armstrong, and they were joined by Aouchiche e.g. second goal and even Jensen.

By putting good footballers close together and giving them the freedom from both a positional sense and defensive duty to try and make things happen in a way that’s less predictable, it presents a challenge to opponents in terms of their preparation firstly, but also from the individual match-up level.

The team also seems to be alive to rebounds from Karlsson’s shots as a means of creating great goalscoring opportunities.

The Yengi Role

Poor Kusini, we hardly knew you mate. Keen readers will remember a long article at the start of the season, trying to justify why the club may have invested in such a profile of player.

What we saw from Lazetic on Saturday, was, for my money, one of the most encouraging hold-up play performances from the #9 under Thelin. He adapted well to the physical demands, held the ball up consistently, and brought teammates into attacking sequences and he’s got a bit about him to scare defenders in behind.

That being said, without the #10 as mentioned, the options to connect play are not as abundant. Support from the midfield and wide-men and then runners beyond the ball will be important things to keep an eye on.

Out of Possession

Just as Jimmy liked his 4-2-3-1 he also loved his 4-4-2 out of possession. This has now adapted to be more like a 5-4-1. What does that do for the opponent? It potential makes it easier for them to progress the ball through central defenders but for the most part on the risk/reward curve, it seems to be working. Again, with those numbers defensively, I think the full-backs can be a bit more aggressive to jump to the ball, along with centre-backs to go with opposition forwards.

We also saw a couple of good turnovers versus Dundee with Aouchiche reading the play well and springing the attack. It does require a good bit of work from the centre-forward to press the ball and make the play predictable.

The Back Five and Protecting Young Players

One of the benefits of the shift to a back five, as we saw in moments against St. Mirren when things got a bit stretched defensively, is that it offers more protection for younger players like Jack Milne and Lobban.

That extra layer at the back gives Dylan more freedom to get forward than he might have in a back four. For Milne, it means a little more breathing room, more support against front pairings and more passing options around him so he can develop with a bit less pressure and showcase his longer passing.

In the long run, of course, if they’re going to move to a back four, those young players will need to prove they can handle that setup as well. But for now, the back five definitely helps them grow into the team.

Progressing to the Mean

In the FotMob xG table I like to consult, the Dons are now actually one point better off, so we’re back to reality and our league position in sixth is probably a fair reflection of where we are as a team. This is ok, given our start, but probably a bit below expectations. As the Yanks say, we’re 0.500 with a 0 GD. You couldn’t be any more mid-table.

In my last piece re. KPIs I suggested we might be about 25pts by the time we get to Ibrox on Jan 6th. I won’t tempt fate but we’re well on our way to that and of course we’ve got the January window to come to relieve us of our post-Christmas blues.

From where we were, Thelin has turned things around pretty impressively, results wise and we’re starting to see a bit more attacking intent - Livingston was a tough watch only last weekend mind. We’ll also see some teams adapt to the Dons, the counter-revolutionaries. First up Stuart Kettlewell, an angry man with plenty to say.

Shipping up to Boston

Carlsberg/Tennent’s/Hazy New England IPAs don’t do World Cup draws but if they did (and god knows it might be quicker), then Friday and Saturday’s selection would come pretty close for yours truly.

As mentioned before, I’ve lived in Boston and various towns surrounding over the last 18.5 years so, I’m pretty familiar with the area, though the World Cup will be a beast into itself. There are many folks out there providing some great advice but if you do have any specific questions, then please feel free to reach out and I’d be happy to try and steer you in the right direction.

My main suggestion would be, if you can’t get into Boston pricewise, somewhere with a commuter rail might be a good shout. Waltham for example has a lot of hotels, a decent enough main street with plenty pubs and is a 20 minute ride on the commuter rail into the City.

Apologies for the long hiatus between posts. I’ve recently taken a part-time job with a youth club over here and my time has been limited. There’s certainly been no shortage of topics to discuss. Unfortunately I have not been able to spend the hours rewatching and analyzing the games.

Tomorrow the Dons play Motherwell looking for their fourth league win in five (amazing how narratives can be developed). A second away win at a classic SPFL dogmatic outfit in a row was followed by a resilient performance away to a a decent Larnaca side. Maybe Jimmy is learning some lessons after all. Two youth academy products, started, four Aberdeonians took to the field.

Anyway we’re 10 games in. Sadly we missed out on Russell Martin’s the Rangers but we it’s a big enough sample to check in on the KPIs from the start of the season. Here’s the original post below.

The targets were set for a third-placed finish based on historical data. Hearts performances this season may be offset by a poor Rangers but it is still possible that hitting these numbers would not get the Dons in the top three. However, we cannot control what others do.

1. Points per game

Aberdeen 2024/25: 53pts (1.39pg)
Aberdeen 2025/26: Target 61.56pts (1.62pts per game)

Target: 1.62pts per game (61.56 for the season)
Actual: 1pt per game (-6.2)

This gets us to the following totals at each quarter:

After 10 games: 16.2pts
Actual: 10pts (6.2pts behind target)

So we’re two wins behind target. In order for us to get to the next milestone (32.4pts after 20 games), we will need the Dons to pick up 21pts from 30.

Expected Points

There’s certainly some scepticism related to ‘expected data’ but we all saw how last season turned out:

I looked at this in December and, though it seemed surprising at the time, the models were pretty close in the end (they all predicted a 50-point season).

We’re just using FotMob data here but I expect other models are similar.

Aberdeen 2024/25: 1.21 xPts per game
Aberdeen 2025/26: 1.4xPts per game
Target: 1.66 xPts per game

I think this has been noted in other circles and gets to the crux of the argument here. Aberdeen are not as bad as things seem but not as good as we want them to be. So if the Dons were to ‘regress to the mean’ and catch up, we’d be looking at a final points total of 53pts.. If they have to swallow up the bad start and pacing 1.4pts from now on, we’re looking at 49pts.

Goals, Goals Conceded, Goal Difference

Aberdeen 2024/25: 48 GF, 61 GA, -13 GD
Aberdeen 2025/26: 7 GF, 11 GA, -4 GD
Target: 0.32+ GD per game (+12 at end of season)
Actual: -0.4GD

Reminder we scored four goals in one game. Yeah this is not good fellas. Any hope below?

xG, XGA, xGD

Aberdeen 2024/25: -0.4xGD per game (-15xGD at end of season)
Aberdeen 2025/26: +0.11xGD per game (projected +4.18GD at end of season)
Target: 0.32+ xGD per game (+12 at end of season)

The issue here is scoring goals. Goals conceded matches up fairly close with actuals but FotMob has us six goals better off than we actually are.

Shots on Target/Shot Conversion

I wrote a few articles on this during last season, this probably being the most in-depth one. Using data from Alan Morrison of the Huddle Breakdown, historical shot conversion for on-target shots is around 32%, which is where the Dons were this year. This does seem to be one metric in which Hibs overperformed last year.

But Aberdeen were lower in terms of shots on target per game - 3.8 versus an average of 4.2. That’s 15 extra shots on target a season and possibly five goals.

Aberdeen’s 24/25 season was one of incredibly high conversion rates, followed by very low, followed by a regression to the mean. So more shots on goal, and more consistency in converting chances.

Aberdeen 2024/25: 3.8 shots on target per game
Aberdeen 2025/26: 3.6 shots on target per game
Target: 4.2 shots on target per game

So we’re performing worse than last year on this metric and quite a bit away from our target. This would warrant a bigger post.

Clean Sheets

Aberdeen 2024/25: 8 clean sheets
Aberdeen 2025/26: 4 clean sheets
Target: 14 clean sheets

Actually this looks more promising and can probably be directly attributed to the switch to the back three/five.

Summary

Based on the numbers I think we can maybe predict somewhere in the region of 25 points by the time the Dons head to Ibrox on January 6th.

There’s more to be written here of course. The tactics of the new system and its sustainability as other teams adapt. Can we address the lack of goals. Do we have money to bring in new players in January and if we do, do we trust the club to get the right ones. And on the numbers we really would want to dig into them more. This is pretty surface level.

Things will either get better, get worse or stay the same before our next check-in on these numbers in early 2026. If they get worse Jimmy will be on his way back to Sweden. If they stay the same, we’ll be sitting on 20pts. Top six will likely be gone and relegation not off the menu.

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From an in-possession sense, Saturday just felt like a series of centre-backs aiming long balls forward that amounted to nothing or switches of play to Alexander Jensen, which also ended up amounting to nothing.

We haven’t scored a goal against a Premiership team this season. Of the five we have scored, two came against 10 men, of which one was a corner. The other three came against a Championship side that is yet to win a league game this season. One of those was another from a corner (hey, maybe the set-pieces are improving) scored by a Sivert Heltne-Nilsen (not currently a fan favourite), one was a breakaway in the dying embers of the match, and in between (here’s the segue) was a strike from Shayden Morris, playing on the left wing. 40% of our goals from this season have been scored by players who are not at the club anymore.

I mention Morris and this is absolutely a genuine question: was this always just about Shayden Morris and Pape Gueye? Two agents of chaos? Not the whole thing, of course. But the goalscoring part. Actually no, it wasn’t, Jamie McGrath was there, too, and yeah, I’m doing it, I’m throwing in Duk, as well.

Morris

Inverting wingers are how most top teams play these days (maybe not in Scotland) and I’m not saying Aberdeen can’t do that, but it just feels like in order to get in behind a defensive line, we need some real on-point combinations. When we find Karlsson, he likes to drift inside and on the right, it’s Jensen and he’s either crossing from deep, laying it back, or trying to work some kind of combination to find a player in-behind.

So this system is great, in theory. The process may work on paper. Maybe it worked before in the Borås factory. But there are times when that rogue worker just doesn’t follow the script, in order to get the job done.

In Aberdeen terms, what we’re missing is the guys who we can give the ball to and just ask them to make something happen. And that’s where Morris was so good. The Luton Town man’s absence was acutely felt on Saturday when it got to that 65-70 minute mark, and the subs board went up. It was Dante Polvara, a centre midfielder by trade, now an impact left winger target man who I, at least, was pinning my hopes on. Oh to see that #20 pick up the ball in the ‘Jensen’ slot and run at his man…

Gueye

I’m not going to rehash the Gueye arguments, but I would point to three main areas in which we miss his presence. Firstly, as an outlet. He played mainly as the #10 so we had him and Nisbet available for the longer balls from goal-kicks or centre-backs. Secondly, he was clearly a major threat from set-pieces. Lastly, he was able to carry the ball. The Motherwell goal was a bit of an outlier, but it demonstrates his ability in that area of the game.

There’s also this ongoing question of, why play Gueye so often if that’s not the type of #10 you want? And if it is, why not sign one?

Duk

Though it won’t go down as his vintage Aberdeen period, Duk when he returned to the team, still contributed last season. Indeed it was his return that saw this late winner from Palaversa.

Just look at that. A wide man with chalk on his boots, going at a defender, getting to the end line and cutting the ball back to midfielders crashing the box. I get that it was against 10-men but it’s still a sight we’re not seeing too often these days.

Duk for all his faults still managed two assists last season. The same amount as Topi Keskinen.

McGrath

Again, I’ve talked before about McGrath’s intelligence to pick up positions from left wing and tuck inside. What’s not been mentioned is his ability to arrive in the box and finish. An excellent SPFL player whom the club deemed not worth the investment if club media is to be trusted. 10 goal involvements last year in the League.

Facts

I’m not trying to rewrite history. But let’s remind ourselves of that winning run last Autumn and about who contributed to the goals and assists.

Since that Dundee win, the Dons picked up five more league wins. Gueye started in all of them, Morris grabbing the winner against Ross County.

Learning Stuff

The Dons overperformed in their opening run of 10 wins out of 11 last season. But it wasn’t just a fluke, there were some real fine performances in there.

I totally understand why the club took the money for Morris, Gueye and Duk. But what I don’t understand is how they failed to recognize what they brought to the team. It seems to me that taking learnings from that period and in regards to the profile of players that were contributing has been ignored.

Perhaps the whole room doesn’t need to be flatpack furniture from Ikea? Maybe we can still keep that old desk we inherited, or one that looks like it.

Instead we’ve brought in players that fit the system. The feeling seems to be that the system just needs to be fine tuned. Maybe we’re in the messy middle of change management, however it seems we’re all gradually moving towards the ‘I like Jimmy but…’. territory.

So the point of this post really is to suggest that perhaps we should have recognised the need for:

• A winger mix that allows for the team to play with width high up the pitch (could be wrong here but I’ve not seen it thus far)

• A flexible forward with ability in the air (this could be Nisbet and Lazetic???)

It’s fair that Aouchiche was probably seen as McGrath’s replacement; perhaps Armstrong will shoulder some of that responsibility, too. We don’t know the ins and outs of that Hibs deal but if it was really about the extra fourth year, when McGrath would be starting the fourth season at the age of 31, well I’m going to say that I think that was a mistake.

The Way it Goes

From Jimmy’s post-match interview on Saturday I got two main takeaways. Firstly, when managers (and players) start putting everything down to winning 50/50s and running harder, it hints at some disharmony within the group. Secondly, I got the hunch that Jimmy knows that something might need to change, similar in the way that he realised before the Cup Final.

For tomorrow, I think we could see Aouchiche, Keskinen, and maybe Jensen out of the team. Milanovic to come in and though it’s an inverted winger, he might start wider with perhaps a Devlin offering on overlaps. At the #10 maybe it’s Polvara for some extra height. Centre-mids? I don’t know.

Not that anyone is asking but I’m still Jimmy-In. This is not the post that will break those reasons down however, he needs some goals and some wins. Over the next two games we have a pretty good idea of how the opponent will play and how their likely to score goals. If we don’t see any clear signs of adapting to that, especially against Motherwell, then it does not bode well for the longer-term.

COYR

P.s. There was a lot to look at in the Motherwell game. I would recommend Andrew Budge’s review here.

These are the things I’ve been telling myself. We know the drill. Hearts/Celtic tough games. Falkirk, well, we played a half a man down. FCSB same. Recruitment wasn’t complete.

But this was Livi at home. The window is closed. The new lads played. And still we haven’t scored a goal. I remember being at Pittodrie that day Andy Dow scored his free-kick. That was the seventh league game of the season. We play Dundee Utd and Motherwell away next.

Familiar Patterns

I mentioned this before. We seem to be getting into a pattern of starting games well, creating a couple of good chances, but failing to make a breakthrough. There’s just enough to be positive about. It seems like we’re always just missing that final piece.

Goals are a rare commodity in football. Most attacks don’t result in a shot. Most shots don’t result in a save. Failure is to be expected. It’s actually quite hard to put the ball in the back of the net. Since 2000/01 season, the average number of Aberdeen goals in the SPFL is 1.25.

Yet right now, Aberdeen, beyond that initial burs,t don’t seem to be taking many shots, nor getting many on target, nor getting any in the goal. It’s grim reading.

The positive person in me looks at those numbers and identifies that the team is underperforming on xG. Average xG per shot is 0.089 from 45 shots. Hibs have had 70 in the same number of games. Their chance quality is a little higher than Aberdeen’s at 0.11. Put volume and quality together, and you get seven goals. The quality of finish (xGOT) is clearly a factor too. See the breakdown of all our chances below.

Aberdeen will not continue to fail to score goals. There will be a regression to the mean at some point, but whether the mean is where we need it to be is another question.

Identity

As a confession, I’ve not watched every game back this season, but I did watch this one. It served as a good reminder that maybe you should just pick up that book or watch that film.

In general, some themes have been common on these pages. It’s part of the reason I struggle with the game-by-game reports these days. Maybe I’m not looking hard enough but everything seems quite similar.

This was from last spring, if you can’t get enough of it.

Case in point. The strategy, as far as I can see, when in possession, is to try and create chances from wide areas. Alexander Jensen is an incredibly important player in this system. Gyamfi might be too, but usually there’s an asymetrical element to the shape, and it was the case again on Saturday with Karlson wider and Keskinen as the inside forward.

There is more and more publicly available data now being packaged up for us all to review and the insight90 app is another brilliant addition. You can have a lot of fun in there. Here’s our passing network and average position. Jensen is #28.

The Dane was unlucky with his chance, which was well-saved by the keeper. Maybe he could have hit it harder? However, he’s not exactly in the team to be the answer in front of goal.

This though, was a good example of the system working. Jensen in space, three Aberdeen attackers on the last line but the final ball was a let down.

I think instructions are to wait for certain situations (like the above) and to recycle if it looks like bad odds in the middle, which it generally is on most occasions. And when the defence is a bit deeper, he’s not whipping balls into the box from deep like a Nicky Cadden for example.

I don’t know if Jensen’s passing stats and receptions are entirely based on his awareness and intelligence to get on the ball, or the fact that the system is designed to have him as the free man and teams are less worried about him than the winger who’s tucked inside, hence he gets the space. Perhaps it’s both. But it doesn’t seem like we’re able to make that much happen from those areas all that often right now.

Cute wee passes

Another element with the turn backs and pass backs is probably about establishing an attacking platform in the opposition half. To develop controlled possession to switch the play for on overload on the opposite side, for example, or to try and move the opponent around so gaps can appear and you can find the little through ball.

The Dons did this better in the second half, with Clarkson, Polvara, Armstrong, and Palaversa on the pitch. See graphic below.

The two best chances of the second half came from Polvara receiving in the inside left channel and playing a through ball to Keskinen. The game had opened up a little by then, but we’re not really finding a man in those pockets, turning quickly and playing the ball through all that often.

At the start of last season, what went under the radar a little was Jamie McGrath’s excellence in that position. He wasn’t an out-and-out winger, but he caused a lot of problems by drifting into those spaces that Polvara is pictured in.

When we didn’t have a smart passer to get on the ball and play those passes, we had ball carriers in Shayden Morris and Duk. Remember when we used to score goals from cutbacks? See the image from that February article linked above showing assist locations.

Topi Keskinen

It’s a bit of a conundrum with the young Finn. He was key to our two best chances late in the second half, but it was late on as mentioned. He has now played 50 games for the Dons. In his last 24 league matches he has contributed one goal and zero assists, whilst starting nearly every game.

I tried to paint a balanced picture in the recent review of his performances. The key consideration in regards to him making serious contributions long-term was his ability to improve in the final third, especially in relation to dribbling ability in tight spaces to create space, the ability to beat his man 1v1, or the finishing ability to take chances. For the most part, he was unlucky not to pick up an assist on Saturday, but there was still something missing from the connection with the players in the box. I don’t know if that’s on him.

Anyway, he may need a rest. Maybe some time as an impact sub.

Adil Aouchiche

I thought this lad’s failure to make a through pass at Tynecastle was early-season jitters. Syncing into the system and the like. I’ve seen nothing since to suggest that he is going to be the man to break down stubborn defences. Clarkson, Polvara or Armstrong would all be better options as the #10.

As an example, this cross was sloppy and lazy and nowhere near good enough. Note Keskinen and Nisbet are making the same run.

Here’s his per90 passing stats from FotMob.

Just leaving Jamie McGrath’s out here for comparison.

And further to my earlier point, he’s not getting on the ball often enough in those Polvara spaces.

Four games in. Jumping to conclusions, I suppose. Hoping I’m wrong.

Jesper Karlsson

The Swede looked lively and has done enough to suggest to me that he will be an upgrade on Keskinen on the left. However, we’ve got early evidence that he’s never met a shot he didn’t like. The highlight reel doesn’t show you the misses. Shotmap from his big season with AZ. Note the xG overperformance as well, if you're into that sort of thing. Matchball collectors in the RDS might be in for some rich pickings.

At least he has a go. Promising debut.

Pressing

I only really started to look at this just inside the second half. What’s going on here? Aouchiche and Nisbet are the front two in the 4-4-2. The Frenchman goes to press the Livi CB on the ball.

The ball is played back to the keeper. Now there’s an argument that maybe Nisbet should shield the pass into Sylla but he goes to the keeper. Aouchiche then moves to cover Sylla but does so by turning his back on the ball. The goalie just plays it back to the CB who’s now unmarked.

Aouchiche then moves towards the centre-back who plays it wide to the fall back and now there’s an easy pass to Sylla.

This is just uncoordinated and headless chicken stuff. Settle down, slow them down, get your shape then go again. You could also make an argument that having two deeper midfielders makes it harder for lines to be compact, creating space for the opposition to exploit.

Keep an eye on this for Motherwell, who have shown good ability to play through the thirds. Tighten it up boys.

Opposition Styles

Speaking of Motherwell, I don’t know for sure how accurate this little PowerPoint SmartArt graphic I created is, but I provide it to ask the question: against which style of opponent do we think Aberdeen’s current system/style is best set up to exploit?

Clearly there are levels here; Celtic and Falkirk might have similar styles of play but we saw the Dons were able to create more chances against the Bairns, in the first half at least.

In theory, the Dons under Thelin should be best in those games with less possession to create transition opportunities, but it hasn’t seemed to have manifested. It feels like the teams on the left-hand side just bully us, and we don’t have the quality to play quickly enough through their high press or low block, whatever the case may be.

Maybe it’s doom and gloom but it’s hard to shake the feeling that this team is just too predictable and too soft.

Saturday is a big game. Motherwell are likely to have more of the ball, and that’s all well and good if the Dons can exploit that but if they can’t and we get played off the park and fail to win for the fourth home game in a row, then it’s unlikely to be too cheery an atmosphere at full-time. Then we head to see Jimmy G.

Enjoy the Game. Let’s hope this is the week it all turns round. Maybe it will be 6-5.

COYR

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It was not a scientific an approach, just a score built around my own options but I found it fun and as a result here’s 2025’s version.

The rules:

• A score of 1 through 5. This is based on the players' contributions to the team, but also considers the financial outlay/return. It’s not a perfect system.

• No loan signings. Sorry Jeppe and Oday*

* I’m going to make an exception for Kevin Nisbet given he his now a permanent signing for the club and will include him in last year’s assessment.

Historical Numbers

This is the score I gave each window last time:

However, in light of some of the turnarounds, some scores should be reassessed. I’m going to take the moral high ground and refrain from penalising players for poor career and life choices. You know I was tempted.

Revised Gradings

Downgrades:

• Dante Polvara: I downgraded Polvara, not to be controversial but to consider he’s hardly kicked a ball (not necessarily his fault) in the past 12 months, and I don’t think he’s done enough to land in ‘solid signing’ grade 3 territory.

• Slobodan Rubezic: He regressed over the course of last year and he’s now left the club at a loss.

• Richard Jensen: A future quiz answer. Didn’t deserve his 2.

• Others: Some were just graded too high, and this scale does not allow enough to differentiate between Jack Gurr and Gary Woods.

Upgrades:

• Greame Shinnie: Plays a ton, gives his all, and captained the club to a Scottish Cup triumph. How can we not say his return has not been positive?

• Leighton Clarkson: I wrestled with this one but I’ve given him the push from 3 to 4. Mainly because I may have had him a bit low to begin with, he’s probably a 3.5. Likewise, Nicky Devlin.

• Shayden Morris and Pape Habib Gueye: Happy to hold my hands up here, I wrote both off, but delighted to be proven wrong. Morris gets a 4 in terms of his contributions last year and the sale value. It might be a tad generous. Gueye moves from 1 to 3 which I think is fair enough.

Revised Window Assessments

So I’ve got 2023/24 as an above-average Transfer Window now. A few hits and misses. In many ways, a tribute to Derek McInnes and Russ Richardson.

2024/25 Season

I’m only grading these guys on 2024/25 contributions. It really is too soon to make major judgements, especially with some of these players only coming in January. I gave it a go, but I look forward to increasing some scores next summer.

Mats Knoester (4) - Knoester played virtually every minute since arriving on a free from Ferencvaros. His grade is a reflection of this. Expectations were not too high but he’s certainly been a good addition to the side and had a great game in the Scottish Cup final. Still some defensive question marks and I could see this being revised in future but for now, based on his efforts in 24/25 its a 4.0 from me.

Dimitar Mitov (4) - Dimi could lose points for his absences from the team, a major blow for the side, and not a surprise that our form suffered. Will give him the benefit of the doubt. Forever etched in our memories - ‘Alistair Johnston - simply must score’ (Go on treat yourselves).

Kevin Nisbet (4) - I think it’s hard to look past his goalscoring return last season. Getting to 20 goals pretty much guarantees you a 5. He hit 11 in the league and based on minutes played it was one every other match. 14 in total, and a few screamers in there.

Topi Keskinen (3) - I’ve gone into greater detail on Keskinen so check that out. In short, good money, done some nice things, never injured, but we need more end product. Big season for him.

Alexander Jensen (3) - Jury is out a bit but more on this season as opposed to last, in which he started well and added a lot with his energy and crossing. However, it was a big fee in a position that it didn’t seem to be a priority. It will be interesting to see how this one develops. He’s probably a good candidate for a ‘deeper dive’.

Sivert Heltne-Nilsen (3) - I’m not sure there’s a way back for Nilsen with some members of the support but he contributed a lot last season, particularly during our amazing start. A 3-year deal and a transfer fee will do for him in the end but for now I’m giving him a 3.

Ante Palaversa (3) - Sometimes I think a victim of the positional discipline required in Jimmy’s centre-mids. A good player with a lot of strengths but I don’t quite know if he’s running the show yet. I’m on the fence, he’s been solid but I’ve gone for a 3.

Gavin Molloy (2) - I think he exceeded expectations initially, but he did seem to always have a bomb scare moment in him, and nothing this season has suggested that has changed. Young lad though, still developing. Will probably join St. Mirren next summer.

Kristers Tobers (1) - A hot take, and maybe we can’t blame the guy for being injured, but this is about contributions to Aberdeen FC. He actually played more than I thought - 770 minutes but in his time on the pitch the Dons conceded 1.98 goals per 90. 10 games, two wins, six defeats. He also cost according to €950,000.00 according to Transfermrkt. I think this is an easy one to move up, I thought we saw some good elements in the build up but the defence continues to be an issue, and we really need him to step up this year. Probably a 2 but I’ve written it now.

Peter Ambrose (1) - Seems a lovely lad and to be honest, it’s hard to judge him given limited minutes. I don’t think he’s a lost cause, to be truthful, but he needs a loan to a Championship team to allow him some room to develop.

Recruitment Season Comparisons

The Dons have made 39 permanent transfers in these four windows, with only 13 players still at the club, only four of those (Polvara, Clarkson, Shinnie and Devlin) were not signed in season 2024/25.

Kanban

I think we can see some elements of building for the long-term and creating a next man-up situation with the purchases of Kjartansson, Bilalovic and maybe Lazetic too. Jimmy had a knack for doing this at Elfsborg and was able to turn profit on a consistent basis.

But the things is those $350K signings start to add up. I’d like to see a few more $100K - $200K bargains coming in.

Livingston

This will be a fun one. It’s time to bring the feel-good factor back to Pittodrie. Let’s hope the class of 2025/26 gives us some reason for optimism.

COYR

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FCSB Thoughts

Shape

In the end, Jimmy did surprise us a little bit with the line-up. Polvara was deployed on the left of the attacking three and we saw the potential threat he offered in the box with two headers at the back post.

In the build up, Palaversa seemed to take some higher positions than normal. At times it looked more like a 4-3-3 with Shinnie as the older. At other times, they kept Aouchiche and Polvara higher on the left.

If we look at the above picture it does seem to me that the team is trying a lot to play that long ball in behind, which seems like a tough one to make. However, it’s possible that the goal is maybe to win the second ball and attack the opponent when they are out of their shape.

In the example above, it went long to Jensen who didn’t win the header but the Dons won the second ball and it did land at Polvara who then turned it over. I’ll be keeping an eye on this.

Dealing with the first half and 11v11, out of possession, the boys did very well, keeping compact and forcing lots of long balls. I think there’s been some good progression in this area so far this season.

Jensen

I think there has been enough said about the VAR. From my perspective, the controllable issue from an Aberdeen perspective is Jensen getting completely caught out with a 50-yard pass. The FCSB wide man held his width well, then timed a sharp run across the last line. Ditto, the pass was well played out the back, but it needs to be cut out without bouncing through. I would also point some blame at Sokler who did not press the ball with the intensity we may have wished for. And maybe the distances/relationship between Knoester and Jensen could have been better too.

The microscope is starting to shift onto the young Dane, and indeed Jimmy’s signings in general. We’ll have to wait and see how things progress. He certainly did well last spring, but I think it’s also fair to have some concerns based on what we’ve seen so far this season. There’s a place for a middle ground in such discussions. He was involved in a lot of our good play going forward, see the Sokler chance for starters.

One hobby horse of mine is his inability to clear his lines. A proper football man opinion but I wish he’d stop putting the ball into bad areas. He had the chance to belt it clear versus Hearts on matchday one and he had another one on Thursday with a header in the first half.

Naivety

Jensen, of course was on a booking after taking out a man needlessly in my opinion. This was an example of the rawness the team showed in such an environment. Sure the FCSB players were milking it but the amount of needless fouls Aberdeen players made across the two legs was alarming and frustrating. Just stand up and keep your hands to yourselves lads.

Sivert Nilsen trying to play a quick one-touch pass instead of calming down the game before the third goal was another. We’ll need to be a bit more streetwise when the group stages start.

Better meddle wi' the de'il

I have a good friend- Graham Rennie, who’s a big Falkirk fan. He previously worked in the Falkirk Academy, holds a UEFA A License, and is halfway through an MSc in Performance Analysis so he knows his stuff. He has kindly written a preview for me.

Falkirk Perspective from Graham Rennie

The Bairns make the journey up to Aberdeen with a mix of excitement and trepidation. The joy of being back in the big time after a 15-year absence is mixed with a realisation that this could be a very difficult season.

After all the flag day euphoria and a good performance against a Dundee United side (who were still finding their feet after a massive squad overhaul) on the opening day, we came crashing back down to Earth with a disappointing result (and performance) away to Livingston and a comprehensive loss at Parkhead in the League Cup.

This predicted team sees Mackie in at left back for McCann and Arfield back in from the start instead of Cartwright. Ex-Don Ethan Ross came off v Livingston and has a serious injury, so Agyeman is likely to play unless one of the new signings that came in on Friday come into the team. McGlynn went to a 5-3-2 twice in away games last season at Raith and Livvy and with Ross out this might be a small possibility, but more than likely he will stick to the 4-2-3-1.

Playing Style

Falkirk have received a lot of plaudits for their open, expansive attacking style in the last couple of years. However, nine goals against in three games indicates that, at some point, John may well need to be a bit more cautious in his approach in the top flight.

The glaring issue in all three games has been how vulnerable we look when we lose possession. Tait and Spencer like to get forward and often leave huge gaps in central midfield that enable the opposition to break on us. I expect this to be an issue at Pittodrie. The channel between Adams (RB) and Neilson (RCB) has also been exploited by all opponents too. Expect Miller and Agyeman to play as inverted wingers and the fullbacks to offer the width. Despite all the plaudits for keeping the ball on the deck, Falkirk will still play up to MacIver and play off the second ball on occasion.

Prediction

I honestly think this is the perfect game for Aberdeen, coming back from their European game. I can see a very difficult day for our lads. I hope we can sneak a 1-1!

Thanks to Graham for the insight However, it should be noted that he is afflicted with the same disease as me (and I’m sure a good few of you reading) in regards to his own team, the glass is, on most occasions, half-full.

With that in mind, I’m actually quite worried about Falkirk who are a good football team. However, as noted versus Dundee Utd, they looked wide open on transition. Given Thelin’s background, how we seem to be building this team, some of the good stuff we saw versus Celtic, if this Aberdeen team, cannot exploit transition opportunities in this situation then we have some major worries.

Team Selections

I do think one issue that’s happening right now is the lack of consistency in the team selections. I understand we’ve had injuries to deal with but it feels like we’re making it up a bit as we go along and I don’t feel like this is helping the development of the team. It’s early days, I know (and yes, I know Morton and FCSB were almost like-for-like).

Take the back four today. There’s probably around six or seven different combinations when you factor in Molloy, Devlin, Shinnie, Jensen, Milne, Dorrington and Knoester. Before we even get to Gyafmi and Tobers and Frame (!). On to midfield. Shinnie, Clarkson, Nilsen, Palaversa, Polvara. With rumours Sokler is on his bike then at least we can be fairly confident (not sure that’s the right word) that Yengi will start.

10 out of our 11 starters in Romania were here last season, eight were here last summer, five played under Barry Robson.

I’d like to think that Thelin has an ideal starting line-up in his head and that events are conspiring against him. It’s also fully plausible to have certain players earmarked for certain types of games, e.g. Clarkson plays deeper in games we expect to have more of the ball. And finally, we can leave room for a player in-form to earn their spot. Again, a while to go but let’s see how this progresses.

Predicted Line-Up

As I’ve said, with the number of positions not nailed down I would be as well asking AI to give us a line-up. Actually, I did. Here’s what it gave me.

Here’s a predicted Aberdeen XI vs Falkirk based on league form, Thelin’s approach, midweek minutes in Romania, and opponent weaknesses:

Formation: 4-3-3

GK:

• Dimitar Mitov

Defence:

• RB: Nicky Devlin

• CB: Richard Jensen

• CB: Angus MacDonald (fresh legs after Thursday)

• LB: Jack Milne

Midfield:

• DM: Leighton Clarkson (anchor, even after heavy minutes, Thelin relies on him)

• CM: Dante Polvara (brings energy, likely rotated in)

• CM: Connor Barron (pressing and ball-winning)

Attack:

• RW: Duk (stretch Falkirk’s back line, off the shoulder to exploit offside trap weakness)

• CF: Ester Sokler (gives Bojan Miovski a rest after Romania)

• LW: Topi Keskinen (width + pressing)

So the good news is the machines aren’t coming for us humble bloggers yet. Here’s my 'PREDICTED' not ‘PREFERRED’ team.

Looking Good and Starting Well

It seems that we start games consistently fairly well. We play some nice stuff, maybe we even have a good chance and then it all starts to go gradually wrong. It was the case again on Thursday. Aberdeen had a great chance via Sokler and failed to take it. It was the same in the first leg and against Celtic.

The fear for this game is that this happens again. Falkirk then get time to find their feet and start playing through the thirds. Tiredness from Thursday starts to kick in and frustration from the stands becomes apparent.

Miller is a talented player, Arfield has a knack for arriving in the box as we well know and Spencer is capable of dictating play. Agyeman is a strong ball carrier and a potential matchup with Jensen, after the week he has had, could be one to watch.

As I mentioned earlier, the Dons have been doing better out of possession but, as we said before FCSB also, for this to really work we need to take advantage of those moments when we can either break quickly or disrupt the opponents build-up. This will be a good opportunity, to work on these aspects.

Tuesday Morning

If we’re waking up on Tuesday morning with less then 3pts on the board and young Mitchell Frame as our last signing of the window, we may be in for an interesting few months. Let’s hope all the boys can get down to business in the next 48hrs.

Enjoy the game. COYR.

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It’s the club’s second trip to Romania. Last one went well. Eventually.

Speaking of comebacks, last week was thrilling and fun. Indeed the Dons looked good but were let down by their Achilles heels:

1. Defensive lapses

2. A lack of cutting edge

I was impressed with how the team started, it felt to me like Thelin’s ideas were really taking shape. You can see the identity in possession but we were not clinical enough in the first half with the few openings we had and we gave our opponents the chance to show us how it’s done.

I’m not certain how much can be added to in terms of the post-match discussion from the first-leg so I want to focus on what Jimmy might do this week. This is just a lot of idle speculation while we wind the hours down.

What did we learn about FCSB?

There were certainly things the club will have picked up on re. specific individuals and maybe set play setups but I doubt there’s a whole lot from last Thursday that can be that insightful.

The Romanians were happy to cede possession, before they even went down to ten men. Once they went 2-0 ahead they set their stall out to leave with as much as they could, focusing on defending their box.

I have no access to watch any other FCSB games so unfortunately can’t really offer much insight other than what can be found on the apps. I think it’s fair to assume they’ll play a 4-2-3-1 based on their previous matches. It also looks like they rested quite a few starters in Sunday’s loss to Arges.

Are they likely to have most of the ball? You’d think so. But are they a ball dominant team equivalent to Celtic, I’m not sure. Approaches of the opposition can also affect this. If Aberdeen want FCSB to have all the ball, they can make that choice.

So what will Jimmy do? Let’s speculate on three of different scenarios. Just for fun.

1. Transition Monsters

Unfortunately, as it’s behind a paywall many of you won’t be able to access but Alan Morrison of the Huddle Breakdown wrote a Celtic-minded piece on the issues Aberdeen caused at Pittodrie. The effective summary is that the structure and gameplan from Aberdeen was sound, but the decision making and personnel involved failed to take advantage.

My hunch is this is what we’re going to be looking at on Thursday. We have to remember this is what Thelin believes in and I think he’ll be pretty confident he can put a plan together to win this match.

Out of possession this will be the 4-4-2 like we saw against Celtic, and like we’ve seen throughout the Swede’s tenure. The Dons will let FCSB have it in their half, keep compact between the lines and look to win the ball back when it breaks the first line of the press and break quickly.

For this to work we’re going to need quality execution from Aouchiche, Milanovic and Keskinen when the ball does break. We’ve seen flashes from the former two but nothing tangible thus far. As for Topi, well I covered that last week, but it was another big game in which he really didn’t offer too much.

So we’re in with 4-2-3-1. I’ve made a guess at the positions. The ones in question are:

• RCB: Milne or Dorrington. It was Alfie taken off at half-time so perhaps Jack Milne might get the nod but since Knoesters has played with Dorrington more often, I went with the on-loan Spurs man. He’s also a bit quicker and might be better at breaking the press on the dribble

• LB: Molloy, Shinnie or Devlin. It’s not an easy one but I think the captain will play. For me it’s him or Devlin. I’d probably go with Devlin but I think Jimmy may went Shinnie on the park. Roasted for pace. Maybe?

• CM: I think Palaversa is a stick-on. So it’s Clarkson, Heltne-Nilsen, Shinnie or Polvara (more on him later). I’m thinking it’s going to be Nilsen and Twitter will probably break. It’s fair to raise questions on Sivert’s performances since he returned but we’re getting into slightly hysterical territory online in regards to the Norwegians abilities.

• LW: Morris or Keskinen. I think Milanovic has got the RW slot as a starter so it would be between Shayden or Topi. He’ll go with Topi and keep Shady-Mo in reserve.

• CF: Sokler did enough and though he doesn’t have the presence of Yengi, he’s busier. He missed one chance that Yengi would have been crucified for but he took his header well with a nice bit of movement to get away from his man. He’s not the answer but we’re in this spot and he’ll give it his best go, we know that.

2: Dusting Down the Cup Final Plan

The primary reason for this approach is to tighten the team up defensively. Take Morton aside and the team have conceded two goals per game thus far this season, continuing a worrying trend from last season.

It might look something like this?

You can slice and dice and stick in some others but my main concern is on the lack of width. However, watch Thursday’s game back and we can see that it was the full-backs, particularly on the right side with Jensen that were expected to provide the contributions on the flanks.

In the Cup Final we really didn’t get going until Morris came on and he played on the right of the midfield three. He’s not starting there on Thursday. Perhaps you put Keskinen on for Yengi or even Morris, so you have some pace on the break. There’s not a front two like Duk and Miovski to call on here.

I’m not sure FCSB are as good as Celtic and I don’t know if they warrant such a considered approach, without a real plan for how we get forward. But maybe that’s worth sacrificing. Let’s be honest, we could nick a goal if we keep it tight. Would the attacking trade off be worth it based on the evidence of this season?

3: The Robson

I haven’t seen this mentioned too much but it might offer a nice balance between defensive solidity, retaining Thelin’s double pivot and adding some threat on the wings. I even found a spot for Polvara, who could reprise his wide midfield role from Eintracht Frankfurt away.

You could definitely make a case for Morris and/or Keskinen to start but it would be good to have one or both to come off the bench. I’m just throwing names in here to mix it up. The increased defensive solidity may provide a spot for Clarkson to come in centrally, maybe even Aouchiche could move to the left for a narrow four.

Personally I think this might give us the best chance of success. Keeps FCB on their toes with a threat to get forward, offers good options to sub players in.

Clarkson and Polvara

Big Dante produced another strong cameo on Thursday, like he did v Celtic. In both matches, he came on as a left winger/wide target man yet most of the talk has been about him playing centre-mid in a two. (For a discussion on this, check out this week’s episode of Here We Go). I’m not saying Dante can’t play there, I’m just sceptical of whether Thursday will be the night Jimmy chooses to break with habit.

Leighton Clarkson seems to be a bit of a victim of the return of Nilsen and the addition of Aouchiche. He had retreated to a deeper midfield role as the season concluded and he did well when he appeared on Thursday.

There’s quite a difference in profiles of the potential central mids, perhaps Kjartan Már Kjartansson fits a Nilsen or Palaversa mould. So there’s the horses for courses argument and there’s the what’s Jimmy’s preferred profile in there. Was Clarkson a temporary solution in there last season. Does Dante fit the mould? I guess, we’ll just wait and see.

What’s Going to Happen then?

It’s a big call for Jimmy. He came through the Cup Final with flying colours by giving his team the best chance to win. We know what his long-term plans are but I don’t think there’s any question that we’re past the stage of trying to play a certain way to embed ideas in. Progressing through the tie would be another feather in his cap. I’m just not sure we’re the well oiled transitional outfit yet. And we’re certainly not a cohesive defensive unit. This might be a cause for deviation.

The Europa League will present glamour. It will also probably present some reality checks. But the game’s about glory and moments. We’re not going to win either this or the Conference League but it’s likely the highest level of football Aberdeen can realistically achieve (until Tony Bloom invests). We’ve got a chance here. Keep it tight, keep it close, let lady luck play her part. That’s what got us here after all.

Good luck to the boys. Safe travels to those of you making the trek.

Come on You Reds.

The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday – but never jam to-day

White Queen (Through the Looking Glass)

The Dons return to European action tonight against Romanian Army Cracks Steaua Bucharest (kinda), champions of Europe in 1986. The one that got away for the Dons.

One name, almost certain to be in the starting XI is Topi Keskinen. It’s just over a year now since the Dons made the ‘flying Finn’ one of their most expensive signings. A few days later, in a memorable debut, he scored a superb last-minute winner versus Queen’s Park.

I’ve been wanting to write about our Finnish fishing lover for a while. He represents so much about the new Aberdeen and indeed Thelin’s Reds. Here goes.

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Player Trading Model

People want to come to Aberdeen now because they know they will get an opportunity to move onto a bigger club….We demonstrated that with Bojan, Ross McCrorie, Lewis (Ferguson) and others. And Topi will be another one if he continues at this level.

But there is no way we are letting Topi go at this stage because he is a key player for us. Unless someone comes in and offers us £20million tomorrow!

Dave Cormack, RedTV interview

I’d like to do a deeper dive on the Player Trading Model at some point, but all I will say is that it’s not apparent to me yet that Aberdeen have cracked the market.

There have been significant successes, and the club deserves a lot of credit for that. However, many of those players were purchased under the ‘old recruitment model’, remarkably, some of these players even came from our own youth Academy. Another two came from MTK Budapest under the Darren Mowbray regime, and you wouldn’t say Ramadani or Miovski were, a ‘Project Player’ (thank you Twitter), but rather were about finding value in unlikely places.

Keskinen might be a poster child for the new strategy, both young and exotic. A mix of the old (Ferguson) and the new (Miovski). As the quote illustrates, Topi is a piece of real estate that we are in the process of trying to remodel/repaint/tidy the garden up a bit, before eventually flipping. In an ideal world, he will go in the summer of 2027 after three years at the club.

It won’t be £20million, but what will it be? If Topi does improve and delivers us a Miovski season, then that fee will surely grow. If not, he’ll get Vicente Beusijened. In the cold realities of football in 2025, the ‘Bojan option’ is pretty much the best scenario we can hope for.

2024/25 Numbers (SPFL)

Given Keskinen’s age, the step-up in level, the amount of football he has been playing over the last two years, his goal and assist return, and the fact Aberdeen did win a Scottish Cup last year, I think the signing thus far can be deemed a success, so far.

• Minutes played: 2435 (2nd in the team)

• Shots: 59 (highest in the team)

• Goals: 5 (4.24xG, 2.54xGOT)

• Assists: 2 (2.69xA)

I’d encourage you to take a look at Topi’s FotMob or SofaScore profile to help accompany this chapter. One point to note is Keskinen’s total ranks across the SPFL versus his per 90 ranks. You don’t need to be able to read them, but you can see a difference by the conditional formatting (greens are good, reds are bad).

This can both be good and bad. The good, actually the very good, is that Keskinen plays a lot. We’ll come back to this in a future post, but Liverpool’s Ian Graham determined as one major indicator of success whether a player plays more than 50% of available minutes. Topi played 18 months of football straight. Hopefully he gives Big Tobers some of what he’s been drinking.

The bad might be the Keskinen is not overly efficient. Some of these stats are ones we might not want to be concerned about. Ohers we would.

Topi Keskinen: Player Attributes and Profile

Here’s a radar from the Ben Grifis website based on Wyscout data and compared to other wingers in the league.

You can see he gets high marks for acceleration, progressive carries, shots, and touches in the box. He also does well in defensive actions. I don’t really know how to interpret the smart passes metric. I’m assuming it means he doesn’t make a lot of smart passes, but when he does, he completes them. Write in and tell me if I’m wrong. He does poorly in assists and crosses.

Over the summer, I also tried out the wonderful twelve football earpiece app, developed by Soccermatics author David Sumpter and his team. It’s free to try, and you get five reports you can run. Just send a Whatsapp message and you’ll be spat out a report.

This image has some slightly different metrics.

Here’s the summary:

In the Premiership 2024 season, Topi Keskinen has shown promise as a winger, particularly in his run quality, as evidenced by his effective box entries and touches in the penalty area. While he excels in creating openings and carries the potential for impactful play, his finishing and passing quality have not reached the necessary levels to consistently convert opportunities into goals. Overall, his performances suggest a talented player still finding his rhythm in a competitive environment.

Earpiece App Report, Topi Keskinen

You can check out the full report here. And I recommend throwing a few other names in there. Maybe an Australian forward…

Most of this, and it’s not to demean the excellent resources and information shown above, is in keeping with my general feeling on Keskinen, which I’d wager may well be shared by a few of you:

Strengths:

• He’s quick and gets himself in good positions by timing his runs well

• He gets a lot of shots off

• Very good ball carrier

• Decent in pressing

Areas of improvement:

• Finishing

• Timing of final pass

• Variation of crosses

• 1v1 situations at top of the box

As the Twelve earpiece report shows, Keskinen’s super strengths are his ability to carry the ball forward and time his runs into the box. Scouting dashboards across Europe may well be flagging him up in their filters on these particular metrics. One in particular is worth exploring.

Progressive Carries

According to this article in The Athletic, progressive actions are football’s most important metric. In more advanced data, you’ll see players’ progressive passes and carries recorded. From there, it’s a simple sum to identify how a player may have improved his team’s scoring chances by moving the ball from a zone with little chance of scoring to one with a higher chance.

One of the early calculations to measure that is Expected Threat (xT), which was developed by Karun Singh in 2021. There are now more advanced models, but I think this does a decent job of illustrating some of Topi’s strengths.

*Sorry for another link, many of you may be aware of all these terms but many may not. I think if we are to frame Topi in terms of the player trading model, these metrics are important to understand

This little passage of play against Celtic was a good showcase of Keskinen’s ability to carry the ball and break pressure.

Keskinen picks up a lose ball and manages to break past the first line of pressure.

He drives into the space, and then skips past Callum McGregor.

Now its a footrace between him and Johnston.

Topi makes his move to cut across but is ultimately dispossessed.

So you’ve got the promise there, the ability to be in back and in a good defensive position, to break out, and carry the ball from one end of the pitch to the other. I did a pretty basic xT calculation and that run increased Aberdeen’s chances of scoring in the next five actions by 9.2% and it reduced Celtic’s by 3.3%. A net swing of 12%.

Fast, but Fast Enough?

Keskinen is no doubt quick, but the race against Johnston would highlight my concerns in terms of his potential ceiling. His game has clearly been built around beating men with his pace, but against the top defenders in the league, the guys who could operate in the Championship or lower levels of the Premier League, he doesn’t quite have the top-line speed to separate, in the way that Shayden Morris does.

Johnston caught him, and the run amounted to nothing. Perhaps he should have looked to find a teammate earlier, or cut back and wait for support.

I don’t have any access to tracking data, so it’s not a sentiment based on any facts, just from what I’ve seen over the last year. I would expect that would have been an adjustment moving from the Finnish league, and his game is still in the process of adapting.

Wide Forward

Topi started his Aberdeen career playing mainly on the right but moved to, what we understand is his more favoured left. Right footed, he is also adept at playing crosses with his left foot.

To describe him as just a winger would neglect some of the structural adjustments Aberdeen make, in terms of the wingers pushing beyond the #9, in build-up and transition. It is the latter in which Keskinen seems to excel. Here’s a chance from Hearts at home earlier in the year.

This is of particular relevance when we consider what has probably been one of the topics in this summer’s transfer window - what Jimmy wants from a number 9 and the expectation that goals will come from the wide forwards. Guys like Topi.

Shots

We’ve got a lot of numbers on Keskinen, but one of the most interesting is the number of shots he took. It’s impressive that he has got himself into the position to take the most shots in the team, and I’m sure that does him no harm with the scouts either.

In terms of xG, you could say he outperformed, gaining five goals from 4.21xG, but his goal return overperformed his finishing with his total xGOT (i.e. the expectation that the ball would go in after he shoots) at only 2.54. In reality, goalkeepers should have done better, or he got a bit of luck. We did have two deflections in that five goals (Hearts and Hibs) and the other three came against Dundee.

But we know he needs to improve his finishing. The question is how?

I think when we compare his shot maps on FotMob from right and left foot, we get some interesting things to consider.

No surprises, he fancies his luck from long range on his right e.g. the Dundee screamer above.

Where I’m most interested in his that wee zone highlighted in the left-foot map. That’s exactly the place you want a wrong-sided winger getting into and then taking shots on their stronger foot,. Think Messi, think Salah, think Okkels?

It’s perhaps harsh to penalise Keskinen for his ability to take shots on with his ‘weaker foot’. The opening clips of these highlights shows how his ability to go two ways can open up crossing and shooting opportunities, as well as highlighting his ability to play on the last man and make runs in behind.

I just don’t think we saw enough of this from last season and if he’s going to increase his goal tally to nearer double figures, and he’s going to be playing on the left, then, in my opinion, he needs to improve his ability to slow defenders down, shift it and get shots off on his stronger foot. Just like in that goal against Hibs.

The Final Ball

We had this situation on Saturday against Morton.

Both Yengi and Aouchiche are ready for tap-ins, yet Keskinen tried to smash the ball past the keeper at point-blank range. Point to note, later in the game he played a wonderful through pass for Clarkson to score.

It does sometimes feel that (Roy Keane might agree) that Keskinen hangs on to the ball too long. This results in him shooting too close to the keeper or failing to make that next pass to a teammate.

Is this an execution failure or a decision failure. I’d probably say the latter and that should, hopefully, give us hope.

Individual Development

We’ve all heard the stories of players hanging back after training to work on their free-kicks, but how does individual coaching actually work at this level? There seems to be a common theme in terms of Thelin’s wide recruits: Pace but the need to improve their final ball/shot.

The boss man said it himself in regards to Kenan Bilalovic: noting that the club “will work hard with Kenan to develop him for the future.” Standard fare, but it would be interesting to know what that entails?

Almost every youth academy has young players working on Individual Development Plans (IDP). Rene Meulensteen was working with Cristiano Ronaldo on his finishing back in 2007 and Dundee’s new manager was the Head of Individual Player Development at Brentford before his popular unveiling at Dens Park.

I’m not sure who fulfills that role at Aberdeen currently. According to this article from the P&J prior to Thelin’s appointment, Emir Bajrami (a winger by trade) was in charge of this role at Elfsborg, based on an interview with Boras Tidning football writer Oskar Palsson.

Palsson said:

“Bajrami is very popular in the squad and had a good career as a player so I really understand that Thelin wants to bring even Bajrami.Young, offensive players are listening to him and Elfsborg has had a good reputation of wingers the last years. I think Bajrami is one of the keys behind that.”

That’s worth considering when we assume Thelin can just get the old Elfsborg winger factory up and running in the North-East. Perhaps it will be a role for the incoming transition coach, or maybe its Peter Leven.

It’s just not technical improvement that can increase a player like Keskinen’s output though. If the cogs are all in smooth motion then I think the aim is to create better scoring chances. The start of last season saw a lot of cutback goals. Transitions, whether straight up counters, or ‘artificial’ e.g., provoking a press and going in behind (see Yengi article) can also make everything a bit easier, if there’s more space to play with.

So far this season, I think Keskinen has been unlucky in that the final ball has not been there from his teammates. Specifically (and this is not a dig) but Aouchiche has had a few chances to play him in behind and fluffed his lines.

Under the Lights

Opportunities are likely to be few and far between in this playoff round but Keskinen will be an important figure. I think Thelin will enjoy the challenge and it might well suit his game model. Topi is a key part of that.

He will remain a work in progress in season 2025/26, but it’s important he takes some steps forward in his finishing and final ball. Aberdeen’s success, on and off the field, is relying on it. Some jam today, or rather tonight, would be sweet.

Enjoy the game. COYR.

The Australian’s uninspiring debut has probably received the most chatter post-game and, well, you can understand the frustration. This post however is not intended to pour over the ins and outs of Yengi’s performance, rather it's about his profile and trying to understand the underlying plan, at least, for now, in one specific area of the pitch.

Fair warning, this raises more questions than answers and is based on one full match and glimpses of a pre-season friendly.

Jimmy’s Man

Back in January I asked this question:

Accordingly with a lot of talk about a new striker coming in and the suggestion he may provide the missing link, I do wonder what profile the club is looking for? A link-man? A fox in the box? A pacy, back-line stretcher? Mixu Paatelainen?

Slow Progress, January 15th

I think (duly noting there is a month left of the window) we have a clear answer given the suggested interest in AC Milan’s Marko Lazetic, alongside the arrival of Yengi, we can assume Jimmy wants height and power. A target frontman. Not sure Mixu quite fits the modern profile but he’s probably the closest.

How does this fit into the Thelin model. Let’s start at the most obvious spot, goal kicks.

Build it Up and Start Again

Last season the Dons mixed up their approach to building-up the play through the season. From goal-kicks there were periods when they often went short and others where they went long. This has led to various accusations of ‘hoofball’ and ‘tippy-tappy shite’ depending on where your viewpoint stands. This blog covered that topic in detail on a few occasions:

1. https://www.afc1903.com/p/a-rabbit-hole-on-goal-kicks

2. https://www.afc1903.com/p/change-of-plan

When it does go short, Aberdeen tended to build-up in a box shape comprising the two centre-backs and the two holding midfielders as in the image below. (was more of a triangle on Monday, one to keep an eye on).

A fundamental element of coaching at this level is to create options and solutions for players to problems and at the same time make it difficult for opponents to adjust.

So with a short build-up, in my opinion, Thelin is either (#1) working an overload to create an opportunity for one of his players to progress the ball forward in a more controlled fashion e.g. crossing the half-way line with his head up and some space to make a pass.

Or, (#2) he’s inviting the opponent to commit numbers, which then allows the team to try and take advantage higher up the field.

Or, (#3) if the opponent doesn’t want to play either game and sits deep, then you have a long-range passer (Clarkson these days) who can drop in and start attacks from deep with other players given a license to get higher up the pitch.

Here’s Cesc Fabregas explaining some of these concepts better than I ever could.

Back to the #9

If you watch the video, you’ll note Fabregas discussing building up in a 4-2-2-2 with the #9 and #10 the third line and the two wingers the highest line. Here’s a couple of images from the two Hearts games at Pittodrie last season. Look familiar?

Quite often we’d see Nisbet (BHH) dropping in and Keskinen/Okkels/McGrath making runs in behind. Hold that thought.

Big Man Up Top

The excellent football newsletter Scouted also covered this topic recently in a piece entitled: Why are all the strikers massive again? Most of the article is behind a paywall (would recommend) but you’ll probably get a good feel from this paragraph early on.

Most of these strikers aren’t known for their technical refinement in possession, either. Though their passing and link up play remains raw at best, buying clubs seem unperturbed. While it won’t much bother David Moyes, Everton’s new 6’5” signing Thierno Barry is a prime example: he possesses great physicality, off-ball intelligence, and dribbling, but completed just 8.1 passes p90 last season, and his first touch and weight of pass remain very inconsistent.

I see you nodding your head.

Surely this provides the evidence for Aberdeen’s recruitment strategy? Firstly it was suggested the main reason clubs are favoring big men is the prevalence of man to man out of possession structures, having a big man to go to if teams commit numbers and break a press makes sense. So far so good, we covered this concept to some degree above.

What they also noted however, is that these power forwards are less involved with link up play and more likely to play on the weak side of defence e.g. pulling away to make diagonal runs in behind. Erling Haaland is the prime example and only completed 8 passes on average per game last season. The goal is often to match up against the last line of defence (pinning) which then can create space for those in the attacking midfield or wide areas. It’s more of a longer outlet than a big man dropping deep and making it stick.

Tractor Boys

By the time the Ipswich game rolled around, I had not taken the plunge with the small fortune RedTV costs these days, but now I’m locked in I decided to take a quick look at the friendly.

So here’s a good example of some of the topics discussed. Ipswich committed five men, Aberdeen went long.

Here’s the before.

Here’s the after.

Yengi didn’t win it but it fell in front of him, Morris picked it up and got fouled. Effectively, the Dons have possession around half way with at least one full-back in space and a 4v5 in the opposition half. What we can’t also see is that Yengi is occupying the centre back, Keskinen is probably getting ready to make a diagonal run in behind. And there’s space there to exploit. Obviously didn’t work out that way, but, as we said a lot of times last season, you can see the idea. Something like the below maybe?

But given Morris’s positioning I’m wondering if the adaption perhaps for this year is instead of the centre-forward dropping in with the #10, he goes higher, one of the wingers drops underneath and we build a platform from there. You can see there’s a lot of space in the middle of the pitch here but does that then mean you only have one real outlet breaking into the space, in this case Keskinen?

The Scottish Question

In the first half though on Monday, Mitov pushed his defenders up and went long. No drawing players in to create space higher up, as soon as Hearts looked to press, the Dons abandoned plan. Could be down to the wind?

As a result, Hearts had plenty time to set up so when the ball was launched the Hearts back line let one of their prize carthorses go and attack with aggression and pace and the other two drop in, alongside the full backs.

Now there’s an extra man covering which makes it harder for the wingers to exploit any space and it’s harder for Yengi as the centre-back attacking the ball doesn’t really need to be concerned with getting rolled if he overcommits. Note Milanovic playing underneath the ball, like Morris.

So this raises a concern on going long against much of Scottish football’s back three setups. Yengi is likely to get bullied and in the event he does win a flick on, Milanovic, Morris or Keskinen are unlikely to be able to get on the ball.

However, maybe there’s hope. The difference from going short and then long, versus just long is shown in the second half form this passage of play. First, Mitov is able to play a more measured pass from 12 yards further up with Hearts midfield and full-backs pushed higher.

Yengi is able to get to the ball first and find Clarkson.

And then, via a bit of luck, we end up with this situation which is not taken advantage of. Note we’re back to the wingers higher and now Clarkson’s joining in alongside the Sunderland lad.

So What?

I’ve attempted to try and identify some of the rationale for the signing of Yengi and Thelin’s interest in this profile of player based on what we’ve seen so far. Of course his height in attacking crosses from open play or dead balls will be considerations too and his off the ball work to press the play, harry defenders, and add some extra inches in our own box will also be important.

However being an option from deep, seems to me to be a pretty vital element for Thelin’s gameplan, particularly in relation to exploiting space created by provoking the press. The issue I see is that if he’s not doing that part well, and he’s not scoring goals either, then we’re in a pretty tough spot.

The Second Ball

If Yengi is not winning every long ball, and we certainly can’t expect him to, then what then does become important is the second ball.

Hearts were better, they put good pressure on us, they win these second balls…

Jimmy Thelin post-match

If you look back at the image shared earlier you’ll see a number of white shirts around the possible landing zone.

Who got their first? A Hearts man. Six minutes earlier it was the same again. Long ball, Yengi beaten in the air, white shirts ready to react…?

Of course it was Lawrence Shankland who nipped in front of Nilsen and, via a Shinnie miscontrol, set Hearts on their way to the opening goal.

When I said this post might raise more questions than answers, this is one. It just felt like Hearts had far more bite and energy in their midfield than we did. We’ll save that topic for another week.

What does this mean for Celtic?

The visit of the Scottish Cup Runner’s Up will certainly provide some more insight into the dynamics of the team for the season ahead. I’d be surprised if we go with anything other than a 4-2-3-1.

This will likely resemble the Ipswich game a bit more and of course all eyes will be on Yengi, because this more than ever, is a game in which the Aberdeen defenders will need an outlet. But it is only going to be really successful if they make those initial short passes, and try to take advantage of Celtic’s desire to press high, however that plan is fraught with potential problems.

May made us believe. We need August to do the same.

Good to be back. Work to do.

COYR

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Unlike last season, when we eased ourselves back into the habit with four League Cup strolls, we’re waking up with a bang on Monday night in Gorgie. I’m certainly not ready, as this post will attest to, and it doesn’t feel like the team is, but we’ll soon find out. Yes, that Cup Final glow has faded quickly, unlike the new Hearts gaffer’s tan.

Back at it

The vast majority of output on afc1903.com has been poorly rehashed versions of other, more talented writers’ work. Season 2025/26 is unlikely to be any different. Accordingly, this is an idea pinched from Arsenal blog Cannon Stats.

At times last season, I think we were all wondering whether this team was any good. With the Scottish Cup win sitting in the boardroom, the answer to the question may not even matter, but I found myself digging into different data sources to try and figure it out. This exercise will provide some ongoing benchmarks to assist us in seeing how the team is progressing.

I took a look at the third-place finishers over the last five seasons across a few different metrics. There’s quite a wide range between the five teams that finished in that position. Luck will play its part, but our hope is that the Dons do their best to keep that to a minimum.

There are more advanced stats, but I only have access to what FotMob can provide over this historical stretch. Apologies if you’re reading this on your phone, as it’s probably too small to read. I’ll elaborate on each one further down.

Points

Average: 61.4
Per Game: 1.62

Points are the most critical of these ‘metrics’ but are largely a result of the others. Last season was the second-lowest total of the last five years, so clearly a missed opportunity given the start to the campaign.

Most of the opportunity probably comes on the road. Aberdeen haven’t managed more than five away wins in a season since 2020/21.

Target: 1.62pts per game

This gets us to the following totals at each quarter:

• After 10 games: 16.2pts

• After 20 games: 32.4pts

• After 30 games: 48.6pts

• After 38 games: 61.56pts

Aberdeen 2024/25: 53pts (1.39pg)
Gap to Target total: 9pts (0.22pg)

Expected Points

The challenge with per-game points totals is that it is harder to use this as a predictor for future performance. Last season, for example, we would have been on 2.8ppg at the ten-game check-in, and as we know, that pace was unsustainable. Expected Points might be a better predictor?

I looked at this in December and, though it seemed surprising at the time, the models were pretty close in the end (they all predicted a 50-point season).

Unfortunately, I couldn’t get the full 38-game xPTs from FotMob, so we’re working off of 33-game totals, which should still give us a pretty good guide. Again, there are some large variations. In my opinion, given the nature of the top 6, working from a 60pt target, you’d want to be hitting 56pts, which gets you at 1.66 xPts per game but that’s higher than anyone else has achieved in the last five seasons.

Target: 1.66 xPts per game
Aberdeen 2024/25: 40 xPts (1.21 xPts per game)
Gap to Target: 16pts, 0.45 xPts per game

Goals, Goals Conceded, Goal Difference

You’ll be spotting a theme here regarding the 2022/23 season. Aside from ‘Robson’s Rescue’, the average Goal Difference is about 12 goals. Last year, the Dons were at -13, and we still managed 53 points. You could argue the top six defeats to Rangers and Celtic skewed those numbers, but Aberdeen need to score more goals and concede fewer this season. Nothing you didn’t know already. 23 of those 48 goals have since departed the squad. Slightly less than I thought but a significant contribution. Yengi and Milanovic to pick up the slack and add the extra?

Target: 0.32+ GD per game (+12 at end of season)
Aberdeen 2024/25: 48 GF, 61 GA, -13 GD
Gap to target: 25 Goals !! (+0.66 GD per game)

xG, XGA, xGD

Lumping all three of these together, just like the above. Last season should have convinced all of us that these metrics have merit, yet looking at this data, again, we have large variations, and we have teams, namely the Dons in 2022/23 and Hearts in 2023/24, performing well below the other sides.

Despite the -13GD, Aberdeen over-performed their xGD by two goals last year. The aim should be the same as the regular GD. So we’ll shoot for +12 here as well. Might be a stretch.

Target: 0.32+ xGD per game (+12 at end of season)
Aberdeen 2024/25: -0.4xGD per game (-15xGD at end of season)
Gap to target: 27xGD, 0.72 xGD

Shots on Target/Shot Conversion

I wrote a few articles on this during last season, this probably being the most in-depth one. Using data from Alan Morrison of the Huddle Breakdown, historical shot conversion for on-target shots is around 32%, which is where the Dons were this year. This does seem to be one metric in which Hibs overperformed last year.

But Aberdeen were lower in terms of shots on target per game - 3.8 versus an average of 4.2. That’s 15 extra shots on target a season and possibly five goals.

Aberdeen’s 24/25 season was one of incredibly high conversion rates, followed by very low, followed by a regression to the mean. So more shots on goal, and more consistency in converting chances.

Target: 4.2 shots on target per game
Aberdeen 2024/25: 3.8 shots on target per game
Gap to target: 0.4 shots on target per game (15.2 over the course of the season).

Topi Keskinen was Aberdeen’s joint top shooter last season, with 56 shots (. Milanovic will help increase contributions from wide areas, as he’s more Mo Salah than Shayden Morris. The other player who got 56 shots off was Kevin Nisbet. Aberdeen’s attacking intentions are a topic for another day, probably September 1st.

Interestingly, the Dons were third in the league last season for touches in the opposition box, which would seem to suggest the team is doing a solid job getting the ball into the opponents’ penalty area but not creating good enough chances when they do so. Maybe the strikers were taking too many touches.

Clean Sheets

Dimitar Mitov staying fit for the whole season is going to be important. As a reminder, the Bulgarian only played 23.5 games in the league last year, just over 60%. Hibs bucked the trend, this season, only managing nine clean sheets, versus around 14 for the other third-place finishers.

However, I think it’s still fair to have some reservations about Aberdeen’s defensive strength in open play and on set-pieces.

Target: 14 clean sheets
Aberdeen 2024/25: 8 clean sheets
Gap to target: 6 clean sheets

Summary

Consistency is clearly an area in which we need to see improvement, and I think that’s the main goal of taking a look at some of this data. There are a couple of different ways this could go.

It’s August 2nd right now. Still a month left of the window, and by the time we check back in on this topic, we’ll be in November. Things will be different then.

Plans Ahead

Most of my articles start with a simple question, and then I try and dig into game footage and data to come up with some kind of answer. What I realised last season was that keeping better records would make the research process a lot quicker.

So I might be a little slower and possibly less frequent with posts, at least until we get up and running, and take a bit more time to gather data post-game. Europe will be a whole other kettle of fish, too. Though I doubt it’s the request or expectation, I won’t be able to cover everything. I’ll probably be back before the Celtic game with some thoughts on the season opener.

2025/26 is going to be another fun ride. Strap yourselves in.

COYR

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There is then, literally, nothing to describe it. I have exhausted all the available options. I can recall nothing else that I have coveted for two decades (what else is there that can reasonably be coveted for that long?), nor can I recall anything else that I have desired as both man and boy. So please, be tolerant of those who describe a sporting moment as their best ever. We do not lack imagination, nor have we had sad and barren lives; it is just that real life is paler, duller, and contains less potential for unexpected delirium.

Hornby, Nick. Fever Pitch

It’s been a few days now. After the dizzying emotional highs, I’ve now entered a contented holding state of joy. The season is over, the next few months should only bring more excitement. The smiles cannot be wiped off our faces for a few months, and even then, when that time eventually comes, you’re only a YouTube search away from bringing them back.

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The win in and of itself was magnificent, and if there was no additional reward other than the trophy, it would not matter a jot. However, there is. It took me about an hour post-game to realise the Dons would be playing group stage football next season. This will have major implications.

The 5-3-2

My tactical game recap is available on the P&J website here and in Wednesday’s print edition. I questioned whether a previous Aberdeen manager had made a more impactful tactical decision in any of the previous eight wins. Shout out to P&J reader Charlie Craig who noted:

In 1970 SC Final Turnbull deployed Jim Hermiston to man mark Bobby Murdoch and he used the pace of Jim Forrest against Billy McNeill and John Clark to create space for Joe Harper.

I don’t have a way of comparing the two, but there were echoes of that match, pre-game. Celtic 1970 are clearly, relatively a better side than Celtic 2025 but the financial gap is much bigger now. The task for both finalists was massive. It made the win even sweeter.

The idea of Jimmy Thelin changing shape was certainly considered, but very briefly. I was certain he would try and do Plan A better with maybe an extra hint of conservatism. I wasn’t the only one.

When the lineups came out, though, the first reaction was surprise, the second was one of excitement. This was the gameplan all along. I fell short of dropping in an Einstein ‘defintion of insanity’ graphic in last week’s post. I’m glad I didn’t need to pull it out for the recap.

Principles? What principles?

This blog has covered a lot of Aberdeen’s adjustments in approach over the season. Long balls vs. building out of the back. Inside forwards and wingers. Inverting versus overlapping full backs. More recently, midfielders have been dropping in between the centre-backs. But as we all know, this was done within the 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 (out of possession) structure.

Thelin’s playing style, for me, at least, and for many of the reasons listed above been tricky to nail down completely. Suggestions, however, that he had ‘abandoned his principles’ seem to completely ignore the Jimmy Thelin of Elfsborg, a man capable of winning football matches with very little possession. Indeed, this appeared to be his calling card.

It was not a complex tactical battle. Aberdeen sat in and offered little until Gueye gave them a bigger outlet in the second half. Celtic struggled to create and got weaker personnel-wise as the game progressed. Aberdeen’s job was to stay in the game. They kept the match in the margins and their keeper came up big whilst Celtic’s did the opposite. I

It could have gone wrong. I could be sitting here writing about the lack of ambition as the Dons tamely surrendered to a 3-0 defeat. But that’s the gamble Thelin took, and for my money, regardless of how the game panned out (easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight), it was the smartest move.

Adapdtability

My view is that this win will only increase the likelihood of Thelin playing 4-2-3-1. With the guaranteed revenue of at minimum the Conference League, he’ll be in a better position to get the players he wants to fulfill his vision. I’ll save summer transfer speculation for others but I would be very surprised if we don’t see a box-to-box midfielder join the ranks.

It does show however, that the manager is not stubborn and is willing to adapt things to win specific games. Thelin has spent the majority of the year working on his longer-term plan. Saturday was about the short-term. We have struggled away from home against the top sides in the league, and maybe as we continue to refine the 4-2-3-1, on the back of a gruelling European trip, the Cup Final ‘gameplan’ might be worth dusting off. But we’ll get to all that in due course.

The Summer Ahead

Yes, just like you, this summer I too will be refreshing the 21st-century version of Teletext to see which superstar we’re bringing in. You can read my preview of every summer signing right now which is “we’ll just have to wait and see” and even then, a lot of the time, “we’ll just have to wait and see a bit longer.” Let’s be honest, who saw who would have had Pape Gueye and Shayden Morris as the Scottish Cup heroes at the start of the campaign? A long way to say, maybe there’s some hope for Peter Ambrose?

Ergo, AFC 1903 will be entering a summer hiatus after this post. A year ago, after messing about on Wordpress and getting fed up of formatting things, I jumped on Substack and started writing to an audience of zero. I’d like to think I’d still be doing it if it were the case, but I’m not sure. Every subscriber email is a wee boost and keeps me going. So thank you all for taking an interest.

It’s been an enjoyable ride and has opened a few doors for me. A particular highlight was seeing Jimmy asked a question, inspired by my Pape article. Thanks to Chris Harvey for the nod.

This blog started and (apologies for the self-indulgence and venturing into LinkedIn terrain) remains a vehicle for my own learning. I am no longer young enough to know everything, and the nuances of the game continue to fascinate me. In Jimmy, we have a wonderful topic of study. I can comfortably say that if I watched every game four or five times, I would pick up on more details.

So this summer is a time for me to do some more studying. There have been some topics feebly neglected on these pages and there are skills related to visualization and data scraping that would enhance this publication, so getting off the hamster wheel of weekly games will provide an opportunity to work on some of that. I’ll be closed for business for most of the summer, but hopefully be back for the start of the season with a fresh lick of paint and some new additions to the menu.

Final Thoughts

To close, and I hope you’ll forgive me, something personal. After Saturday’s match, I’m sure many of you were thinking of those who could not be at the game to share in the happiness. I was no different.

My mam had never been to a game at Pittodrie but spent many pre-Christmas and birthday hours in the club shop. Through her husband and sons, she became a keen football follower and would have been able to converse with young and old about the game.

So much so that when the Scottish Cup visited our local team Rothes FC a few years back, she walked down to MacKessack Park and got her photo taken with the grand old trophy.

In late January, my mam collapsed with a brain aneurysm and, despite the efforts of those around her and the medical staff in Elgin and Edinburgh, sadly passed away at 69.

A few weeks later, in February, I got that picture put in a frame. It sits next to my desk where I write these posts. My mam and the same trophy that Greame Shinnie lifted on Saturday night. I’m not a spiritual or religious person, but sometimes, well, you know.

The joy for her on Saturday would have been in seeing the joy in others. It was wonderful to see the scenes at the weekend, and my brothers, sister-in-law and two nephews were able to partake on the streets on Sunday. The collective power of football is unmatched and, of course, I’m biased, but there’s no club I’d rather be a fan of. This weekend has been a wonderful reminder but so has this whole season.

COYR and wishing you all a great summer. See you in August as we begin our assault for star number three.

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More in-depth review to follow later this week, but I couldn’t let the occasion pass without acknowledgment.

Congratulations to Jimmy Thelin, his players, and all the backroom staff. There was a ‘gameplan’, and it achieved its aim of keeping the team in the match thanks to the concentration and effort of his team. An element of luck, no doubt, but sometimes you make your own.

Finals are about doing what you need to do to win the trophy.

Every player deserves praise, of course, Dimi Mitov, was the hero and we can’t ignore Shayden Morris, but a special shoutout to Jack Milne. A local loon, thrust into the biggest game of his career and handled it like a veteran.

Oh aye, and, ‘we’re taking our team into Europe’. Enjoy the parade and the impending hangover.

COYR

Some Plugs

I wrote a piece for the Press and Journal on the game and the lessons the Dons can learn from early matches. You can check that out at the link below.

Press and Journal Preview Piece

You may need to create an account to view. There are some nice interviews with former players as part of their coverage as well that are worth a look too so you’ll get more than just my two cents.

And a reminder on the two other pieces I’ve sent out this week:

Here We Go Podcast: Cup Final Preview

Celtic perspective on the Cup Final from James and Alan of the Huddle Breakdown

There’s a lot of detail in all three, which provides a good preview of the match. However, I couldn’t let the biggest game of the season pass without posting something, after all, it’s been quite the first full season for this blog. So this is just a couple of additional thoughts, which are really just me thinking out loud.

The Gameplan

I will be incredibly intrigued to see an hour and fifteen before kick-off, what lineup Jimmy Thelin selects. Last week, I wrote about managers who chop and change versus those with a longer-term philosophy. But I think there’s a middle ground of coaches who adapt to circumstance (we’re still waiting to see on that one for Jimmy), and then there’s also coming up with a specific plan to win a specific match.

When you’re a heavy underdog and you’ve taken a pasting a few times, then you may have to consider adapting your approach to try and win. Because, yes, we all want this three-year project to be successful, but so many things can happen in football that make it hard to get to the final on a repeated basis. We’ve had a bloody good draw this year. At the present rate, these chances only come around every decade.

In his interview on the club website, Thelin said: “We have a clear plan of what we want to do.” Not once but twice.

Then we had this from Kevin Nisbet:

“We know Celtic are a top team, they play the same way, they do the same stuff consistently and that is why they are champions. For us we’ve got a game plan. Obviously, I can’t say too much on it but it’s just up to us to execute that game plan on Saturday. We will do a lot in the training week, leading up to it, and it’s just about us as players to go out and execute it.”

So it does feel a little different than the usual pre-match chatter we get. The question is - what is the game plan?

Would Jimmy change formation? I’ve floated the idea of a 5-3-2. Additional protection at the back. Safety net for the full-backs to go and engage, pace on the break. I just can’t see it. Jimmy and the team will probably stick to the structure they know.

Some positional adjustments? Shayden Morris up top with Nisbet? The much-requested midfield three with Shinnie, Palaversa, and Clarkson, allowing an easier switch into a 4-5-1?

Recover and Counter

In all the links I published above and from everything we’ve seen so far this season, the vibe appears to be that Aberdeen’s best chance of scoring is likely to be from disrupting a Celtic build-up - probably intercepting a pass from one of the centre-backs and then launching a quick counter-attack in transition.

To this point, pace is pretty important to capitalise on Celtic being out of position. For most of the week, I was certain that Morris would not play, but as the game gets closer, I’m starting to have second thoughts. The benefit of Morris is that he is probably the only player who will have a match-up advantage over his Celtic counterpart. We all know how valuable he can be off the bench, but I don’t know if the Dons can afford to keep something up their sleeve. The flip side is Shayden is not as good defensively, and dealing with Celtic’s inverting full-backs, plus leaving Jensen 1on1 with Maeda seems risky.

Keskinen is going to play, and I’m sure McGrath will too. I haven't even thought about Gueye who we’ve talked about before, but certainly has some value, at the very least in both boxes.

Rather you than me, Jimmy.

Brendan

The thing about game plans and creating a tactical advantage is that they don’t last. Maybe it was always the case, but games these days at the top level are just a series of adjustments. Brendan Rodgers has been playing a similar core style of football for as long as I can remember. There’s probably not a scenario he hasn’t faced, and he will have a solution. Some of those will be presented to his team ahead of time, and some they will have experienced before.

It can be as small as a certain player finding a pocket of space for an extra second or two. JJ Bull in the linked Here We Go podcast, mentioned how he often pulls the centre-backs further apart to make the press harder for Aberdeen’s front two. That’s just one example.

So there are two points here. Firstly, if Aberdeen can do something that spooks Celtic for a little bit then they must take advantage. Secondly, they need to be prepared for what Celtic’s likely countermove will be and so on and so forth. It’s a cliche, but it will be a bit of a chess game. We just have to hope (as they say here) that Thelin isn’t playing checkers, because we know Rodgers will be playing chess.

It’s the set-pieces, stupid

But you can just forget everything I just said because the most sophisticated pressing scheme or build-up plan won’t mean a thing if Aberdeen cannot defend a corner.

It’s the counter-attacks, stupid

As above.

Denying shots - siege mentality

Let’s just say the plan goes perfectly and the Dons take an early lead, get to half-time, and avoid an early second-half collapse. Then what? What’s forgotten about the 2-2 draw is that Aberdeen defended for their lives for the latter part of that match. Concentration levels outside of the box were high, and Celtic were restricted to shots from outside the box as much as possible. When it came down to it, players - Nicky Devlin memorably - put their bodies on the line to secure the point.

And let’s not forget about that Swedish coach Jimmy Thelin who used to manage Elfsborg. The counter-attacking kings. Wee refresher below.

Closing Thoughts

I’m going to keep this positive. We all know what we want to avoid.

Reaching the final is about much more than the game. It’s an excuse to watch old victories and relive memories. McKay, McLeish, McGhee, Black, Hewitt, Irvine.

Though there is a big payday on the line in terms of European group stage football, it seems to me the players, coaches, and fans are primarily focused on lifting the trophy and the glory that brings. The way it should be. Just ask Crystal Palace or Bologna, or Spurs supporters.

I remember 1990 in fragments. Perhaps some implanted Blade Runner style memories, but I remember the hot day and playing outside whilst the game was going on. Coming back inside for the penalties. I was just turned five. The point is, I remember it.

For those of you going to the game, safe travels, and enjoy every second, especially those of you taking children to the game. I still recall getting on the bus in Aberlour, 25 years ago, and the first sight of the Hampden turf, many hours later.

It might be wee, but there is a chance. It won’t do any harm to let yourself dream for a few hours.

COYR

Their use of data in an insightful and accessible way has been an inspiration for many of the articles on AFC 1903 this season, case in point, it was Alan’s work on the Dons early season shot conversion that gave me some early concerns that the Thelin revolution may not last.

I asked them both a few questions, primarily looking to see whether the Dons had any chance on Saturday. They were generous with their time and their answers. There might be some slivers of hope we can cling on to for the remainder of the week.

Celtic are heavy favorites for the Cup Final. Is there anything from the games this season between the two teams that provides any concerns from a Celtic perspective?

James: I think Aberdeen have the profile of players that can hurt Celtic in the final third – do not believe we have a material advantage athletically from a size/quickness perspective. Players like Morris and Gueye present difficulties, particularly if matched up vs Celtic’s defensive left.

Alan: The first game (2-2) – quick passing through midfield, especially from McGrath was fruitful and exposed Scales badly for goal. But Shinnie/Nilsen were easily overrun in midfield and Dons cramped up after 70 mins of a quite aggressive press.

The Dons were very positive and front foot and my question after was “Does Thelin recognise he got lucky or is he outcome biased and will try the same in the LC Semi final?” He chose the latter path.

Celtic in many ways let Aberdeen have the ball and picked off poor passing, especially out from the back (has this been rectified with new signings?) The message from those two games – don’t try and go toe to toe.

The tightest game was Dec in Aberdeen. BUT – howling gale, driving rain and small pitch combination you won’t get on Saturday. Aberdeen tried a 4-3-3 compact mid-block and were quite effective. But again keep giving ball away when pressing traps worked. Lowest xG diff in this game – 0.87 for Celtic.

The February game Aberdeen again tried to mimic Brugge 4-3-3 mid block with Nisbet man marking McGregor. Again the Dons press went quite well but had poor passing and fluffing transition chances whilst Celtic were clinical on counter. The Dons did not punish successful turnovers.

In the recent 1-5 game – I had no idea on Thelin’s game plan and this would be a worry as would be the attitude of the players – they pressed but very half heartedly. Even little things – reaction of Nisbet on being subbed; not even acknowledging players coming on – signs of discord?

Data wise, which game was the closest and are there any interesting trends/anomalies that Aberdeen could build on?

James: The closest game was the December 4^th game at Pittodrie, IMO. While Aberdeen lost the game 1-0, xG difference was well within 1.00 and maintained an xG advantage for most of the first 70 minutes. It was the game with the lowest average defensive line of engagement and the most direct – i.e. Aberdeen did not attempt to play out from the back as much.

Alan: It was the 0-1 in December but that game was strongly shaped by conditions. Make sure you don’t play Shinnie and Nilsen in midfield again. The 4-3-3 midblock brought some success, but you need both good pressers AND good passers and Aberdeen must take chances when they arise.

Following on, which teams/styles/strategies have caused Celtic the most problems this season (I think you mentioned the Brugges mid-block before) - excluding the super clubs etc you’ve played in the Champions League

James: Celtic’s main weakness are on-the-ball building up from the back and progressing through midfield into the attacking third. The teams that have given us the most problems setup to force our CB’s to do something on the ball to advance in buildup.

The problem teams face is that Celtic are so good in transition and off the ball, that there is a risk/reward element which is vital. Maeda and Kuhn, in particular, are lethal at getting in behind via balls over the top and/or throughballs.

This presents several challenges – how high a line does a team play in order to squeeze space and man mark the midfield and fullbacks?

It is not the same risk/reward for all teams. I think the main variable for Aberdeen, and all teams, to consider when calibrating are:

1. How disciplined is the team with pressing/triggers?

2. How athletic are the front 7 to execute the man marking of midfield and fullbacks?

3. How good are the back 4 at offside traps and maintaining line discipline?

4. How fast are the Aberdeen CB’s and FB’s in order to address the inevitable instances when Celtic’s timing is good at getting in behind?

5. How good is Mitov at coming off his line to pro-actively come for the balls he should to cover for the high line?

Gavin will have a far better sense on the answers to those questions than I, but from what I have seen and looked at regarding Aberdeen, speed is not a strength and Mitov’s judgement off his line is not a strength either.

Therefore, I would think that what I call an “ambush” period at the beginning of the game where a front-footed pressing approach is taken for the first 10-15 minutes could be worth the risk (but there would be considerable risk) if the strategy is to be smart about getting the ball into Celtic’s box at ALL opportunities – long throws, direct kicks from all viable distances, etc.

Celtic have had an issue with the first 20-30 minutes in most games against teams of all levels, as high-intensity defending and pressing have given us major issues and neutralized our strengths in transition. However, as soon as the marginal drop off via fatigue and/or focus occurs, the 30-45 minute period has often been when Celtic have hurt opponents in transition.

Alan: As mentioned above – the 4-3-3 mid block with selective press – even if Aberdeen only press aggressively in own half but are prepared to spring at pace – my worry watching Ibrox game is Keskinen and Okkels simply not rapid enough and Gueye very erratic.

What do you see us Rodgers biggest selection questions ahead of Saturday’s match?

James: This also highlights the tactical issues referenced in the prior section – with Hatate most likely out injured, he had been the player Rodgers had evolved to deploy as help dropping deep along with McGregor when facing intense pressure/pressing. His ability to get open into space, turn, and deliver balls from deep was a major improvement and carried a threat in transition.

None of Engels, Bernardo, or McCowan provide those dimensions – Engels can be dangerous from deep but is pretty erratic and nowhere near as skillful in getting open or turning on the ball to build the attack.

This is the main selection quandary for Rodgers, IMO – McCowan versus Bernardo. One of my criticisms of Celtic this season has been the relative rigidity of 4-3-3 in possession, and I think Hatate’s absence further highlights this issue. McGregor+Engels in a double pivot with McCowan as the 10/2^nd striker could be more effective, in my opinion – requiring less of Engels in moving back from the more advanced attacking 8 role. However, I am skeptical any changes will occur at this point. My preference is for McCowan over Bernardo, but view it as the better of two unsatisfactory options. Engels and Bernardo together would be the midfield I would want to see as an Aberdeen supporter.

Alan: Whether to start McCowan or Bernardo instead of Hatate. Bernardo provides structure and energy. McCowan provides randomness and risk-taking.

Forrest has a real chance of starting on right instead of Kuhn who seems ready for the off. But I think he’ll start Kuhn with Forrest getting 30m. Could play Kuhn, Forrest and Maeda and drop down Idah but he won’t.

Anything else you think might be of interest to Aberdeen fans?

James: I do not see much utility in the matchup for a left sided wide player, whether that be Okkels or Keskinen. I’d be more worried as a Celtic supporter if some mix of McGrath and Gueye were central/inverted off their attacking left, with Morris wide right.

Once an ambush period exhausts, I would be worried if Aberdeen settle back into something like a 4-5-1 and play relatively direct targeting Celtic’s defensive left in transitions and with long/high balls.

With Hatate likely out, and my guess being Rodgers goes with a front three of Maeda/Idah/Kuhn, Celtic could have major issues trying to break down a disciplined and narrow defense, and rely upon Mitov’s shot stopping on any long distance shots that happen to get through.

Lastly, using all set pieces as potential chance creation opportunities would worry me, as I do not believe Celtic have a relative “chaos in the box” advantage relative to size/quickness.

Alan: At 1.18 per game, Aberdeen are worst team in league at generating what hudlstatsbomb call “Clear Shots” – “Shots generated when only the opponent's goalkeeper was in between shot-taker and goal. (Within a cone between the shot-taker and the goalposts.)”

Aberdeen are quite good at limiting opposition passing – 74% average – 3^rd best in league. Dons 2^nd worst in league for xG conceded from set piece – 0.37 per game.

The main strength is in pressing and counter-pressing - both in volume and in regains therefrom. And strong in pressing in opposition half – but beware what happened in Cup Semi.. The trouble is then what happens when win ball back! Aberdeen are only 7^th best in counter attacking shots and 8^th best in high press shots.

A “luck “ indicator is Aberdeen have experienced the worst shot On Ball Value against of any team – each teams shots average -0.15 OBV per game – which suggest awful shot choice or execution from Aberdeen’s opponents.

My thanks to Alan and James for their time. I will have a preview in the P&J later in the week and a small preview piece on Friday. Enjoy the week, fill your cup up with optimism, life is too short.

Throughout the season, it has felt like that. A feeling that we couldn’t lose, followed by a feeling that we couldn’t win. That’s kind of what it feel likes again right following a run of three successive defeats and conceding ten goals in the process.

Aberdeen have only managed to beat three teams away from home this season. All three sit in the bottom three places in the league, and all five matches were determined by one goal.

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The Midfield

I had intended to write a short post on the midfield after the St. Mirren game, but never got round to it (life and family took priority). The crux of the argument was that with Leighton Clarkson dropping into the back three quite often, but the team conversely looking to try and play long balls, there’s usually a big gap in the middle of the pitch, which I think we can say has been wonderfully illustrated by this heatmap against the Buddies.

That tends to create lots of opportunities for opponents to start attacks by winning second balls. And we can see this in reality in the image below which immediately followed an attempted long pass by Mats Knoester.

A while back, we wondered what would happen if we played Clarkson and Palaversa in midfield in SPFL games. The initial evidence was positive, especially vs. Motherwell, but there are limitations that teams can take advantage of.

Earlier in the season, Nilsen and Shinnie rarely dropped into the back three. Occasionally, the captain would go into a full-back position, but for the most part they retained the box shape with the two centre-backs.

Jamie McGrath

I’m not sure not offering McGrath four years was a good idea (he would have left early anyway), but that’s just me, and let’s hope we’re all laughing at Hibs ineptitude in season 2028/29. They seem to have gotten one over us with Junior Hoillet.

But whilst we’ve got him, I would play him. We can get into the Cup final in due course, but just having an extra stepping stone between the midfield and attack, to get on second balls, with the ability to play in behind, would help in light of the above. He’s a good player.

Managerial Styles

Jonathan Wilson wrote a nice piece on his Substack regarding managerial philosophies:

Wilson's World (of football)

A theory of nothing

In 1999, I gave up on academia. In part that was a financial decision; I’d been accepted to do a DPhil at York, with exactly the right tutor for my proposed subject, but even if I had got funding, which I hadn’t, I had no idea how I was going to pay for it. Mainly, though, it was because I’d become disillusioned, turned off by the backbiting and petty p…

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a year ago · 40 likes · 3 comments · Jonathan Wilson

At some point in the summer, I’ll try and distill all my recaps and thoughts into what we’ve seen from Jimmy Thelin in his first campaign. It might be hard, though. He’s not easy to pin down, yet in some ways he is. Brendan Rodgers and Stephen Robinson, and even Baz the club ambassador seem to have his number.

Jim Goodwin, seems a man much more comfortable in his skin nowadays. We saw with Goodwin how he struggled to try and play a different way with Aberdeen. Maybe things would have been different if he’d made us a turbo St. Mirren. Goodwin lost to junior side Darvel in a Scottish Cup match.

Just as there’s risk, as Wilson points out, in not adapting your style, there’s also a concern with managers who seem to flit between formations to try and gain a reaction, or throwing a lot of shit to the wall and seeing what might stick and Goodwin still seems to fall into this camp, Bazza too. I think David Gray has done very well with Hibs this season. He is quick to point out that the players continued to believe in what they were doing, but he threw the whole plan out up to that point that night at Easter Road. I wonder about the back three system he struck gold with and what that tells us for the future.

This is the classic SPFL change. Managers spend their summers watching the Euros or the World Cup, telling themselves that this is the year they finally develop that expansive and attractive philosophy the fans and chairman have been asking for. Sign the guys to do it. Switch back in late September when reality hits. It’s hard and takes time (note to self).

There’s a difference, of course, in implementing a game plan for one match. Especially if it’s a very important match with a trophy on the line…

Mind you, managers are not that important anymore. It’s about how good you’re algorithm is.

Nicolas Milanovic

Speaking of identifying talent, nice work from the PR team in burying Wednesday night’s bad news. Here you are, enjoy your bread and circuses.

For some, the season will get going after the Cup final. Wee leaks of foreign names appearing on social media. Highlight reels. Counting the ins and outs. Remember, not so long ago, that foreign name was Kristers Tobers (bit harsh, I know, but 700K, nine games, two wins, two clean sheets) or Jeppe Okkels (I’ve finally given up -sorry Jeppe). Our best signing this season was a former SPFL striker.

On Milanovic. God knows. We’ll just have to wait and see. I like the idea. He could be good, he could be crap. Will write something about him in October.

Back to that Coin Flip

Dundee United have not scored in open play against Aberdeen this season.15 of their goals have from set-pieces.

Their average possession is 43.9%. They put the most crosses in and are second in long balls. Their strategy is to reduce the game to a series of corners and long throws, and deep crosses into the box.

This match will be determined by whether Aberdeen can flip the coin in their direction with what seems to be our version of the set-piece expertise - one of our players coming up with something special and whether we can withstand the aerial onslaught.

It will be on that flip that this season of ups and downs will be judged.

COYR - Enjoy the game if you are going. Okkels for the win.

P.S. Thoughts on the Rangers game here.

There is another player, on a redemption arc, who has also divided opinion despite enjoying a pretty successful season. In this case, the jury still appears to remain out. Arise, Pape Habib Gueye, your day in the football court has arrived.

Chad Bradford

Here’s your first Moneyball reference (only took 10 months) in the video above. Chad Bradford was a talented pitcher who had one flaw - a weird throwing action. Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s looked beyond this, signed him, and he did pretty well. Unless we’re talking the 2007 Boston Red Sox, my baseball knowledge is pretty thin, so apologies if I can’t provide more context, but he did good enough to feature in the movie adaptation.

I’m making this analogy because you’ll probably not have to go far to find Pape Gueye described as ‘not looking like a footballer’... This is in part, and maybe we’re all primed to notice it now after his “disappointing” first season, because Gueye seems to make the simplest mistakes: bad first touches, wayward passes, tripping over his own feet when dribbling.

Losing possession, or stopping an attack, are all concerns, but I can’t think of a major game-costing error Gueye has made - he did give up possession early in the semi-final, but it amounted to nothing in the end. It was a terrible pass.

Back to Bradford. Do these mistakes cloud our judgement of the overall merits of Gueye the player? Should Aberdeen’s approach to finding hidden value be applied solely to untapped geographic markets? Can we find value in players who may not pass the eye test at all times, even players who do make a lot of mistakes, but offset it with their positive contributions and the occasional bit of magic like this…?

Let’s summon our inner Jonah Hill and look at some numbers.

Data Dons

From a ‘data’ perspective, this is a basic review. I don’t have access to any of the sophisticated numbers the club will be looking at e.g., some kind of possession value model, nor do I have an elaborate benchmarking system that I can call on. Regardless, there are some simple things we can take a look at for a bit of fun.

Pape Habib Gueye

SPFL Minutes Played: 1020
Games Started: 13
Goals Scored: 6 (4.76xG, 5.46xGoT)
Assists: 1 (0.73xA)

This information comes from FotMob. There’s no sense regurgitating it all, so here’s a link to Pape’s profile if you want to see it in more granular detail.

What I can do is compare him to his teammates.

Just a reminder for those of you tuning in from Helsinki, we’re just presenting numbers here. Gueye is the second top goalscorer in the team (granted, five of those goals came in a hot spell in August/September). Assist-wise wise he’s not offering a lot, but from a per-minute perspective, he is one of the most effective contributors in attack.

Since this is a ‘data’ piece. We need to consider the ‘expected’ numbers. How does this look?

Again, Gueye comes out looking quite well. His sample size is lower than most.

On the defensive side, see below.

League Comparison

The above radar chart comes from Ben Grifis, whom I’ve plugged before. I think what this tells us is most of what we already know. Gueye is a threat in the box and is good in the air, but his passing is, at times, poor, and he does not offer too much defensively.

These benchmarks are for central and attacking midfielders, which I think is fair enough, but we know Gueye is not a traditional #10 and acts as an additional striker quite often. Ergo, his numbers from an attacking perspective are likely to be higher than many of his peers in that position, especially those in central midfield. I don’t have the skills to compare him to strikers in the league.

Plus/Minus

All ends up, Gueye is sitting with a positive goal differential in his games for Aberdeen. In only three matches he has played, Aberdeen have lost. In games he has started, the team’s record is: P13, W9, D2, L2.

Correlation does not equal causation, particularly in a sport with ten teammates, and there’s a clear drop in Gueye’s attacking contributions following his return from injury in January, with only one goal and one assist in eleven matches.

Still, it’s a pretty solid record that you could build an argument around.

The Tactics

Unfortunately, I don’t have the time and means to go through and analyse Pape’s every move from the recent games, but do want to look into a few topics.

Left-side overloads

From day one under Thelin, we’ve seen fluidity in the attacking players with an asymmetrical bias towards the left side. For a large chunk of the season, this involved establishing some numerical superiority and working passes to create a through pass or a switch to the right. See below an image representing this from the recap of our only visit to Gorgie this season.

I think we’ve established that possession in tight spaces is not Gueye’s forte. Where he does well, is in transitional moments or quicker build-up sequences, and we’ve seen more of this in Thelin 2.0: Springball. In the example below, the ball has gone back to Mitov, who spreads it to Shinnie. Gueye just drops into that little space to receive, and now Hibs have a problem - a 1v2 to deal with and Keskinen, high and wide.

Those three - Shinnie, Gueye, and Keskinen- seem to have a decent understanding. Five minutes earlier, we had a full-scale rotation of positions - Gueye at left back, Shinnie at left wing, and Keskinen striker.

There was also a good dynamic between McGrath, Gueye, and MacKenzie earlier in the season. So I highlight this to show Gueye seems to have:

1. The tactical awareness to work with his teammates to create numbers-up situations in that area of the field/follow the gaffer’s instructions on how he wants to progress the ball

2. The timing and ability to drop in at the right time to receive in space behind the midfield and in front of the defence

Those receptions are in good areas, and he seems to be getting better at linking the play - 21/22 passes were successful on Saturday.

Winning the ball in the air and being a target for longer balls

Gueye is great in the air at both winning the ball and scoring goals. His aerial duel wins are in the 99th percentile for his position, and he has scored four goals from 10 headed shots this season in the league. See one such goal against Killie (video via Paul Donaldson on YouTube).

There’s also the outlet factor. We’re back to provoking the press and all that, but we’ve certainly seen in recent games, teams pushing high on Aberdeen, the defence then chooses to go long, and you want someone who can either flick it on (for a running teammate), create enough of a challenge to stop the defender taking it down, or be able to hold the ball up depending on the height.

Gueye’s not perfect at this, don’t get me wrong, his hold-up play could certainly improve, but if you just compare him to Ester Sokler for example, and consider Aberdeen being pressed high, who would you rather have up front?

In these games of fine margins approaching, having a major threat at set-pieces is important, as we saw in the Scottish Cup semi. Gueye is our best header of the ball. We will want him on the field at some point when these opportunities present themselves.

Second Balls

I’ve been noticing this, and I can’t share too many examples, but Gueye seems to have a good knack for picking up second balls. This is the quickest example I could find, but I will start noting down moving forward.

Knoester has played a long ball looking for Keskinen. Gueye, preparing for him not to win the ball, starts to make a run underneath. The Hibs man wins it, but Pape has moved into the area where it lands and picks off the second ball.

What happens next? His first touch goes out of play, and Hibs have a throw-in. Pape being Pape. And that’s the gist of the whole argument. Do you praise the first action or berate the second? Balance, something the internet does not like, is probably the answer. He’s under a bit of pressure, but he’s also a professional footballer.

The Present, the Future, and the Past

One of my motivations for writing this piece is that I think we might be moving to a post-Pape starting XI. With Jamie McGrath now back in contention, I’ve a feeling his energy, on and off the ball, may be preferred in upcoming matches, and I didn’t want Pape to just be a footnote to the season.

And yet, it is a strange situation for this top six because we now have two games in which we will presume to be the primary aggressor against teams and coaches who never met a hoof up the park they didn’t like. Games in which an aerial presence would seem to be important.

We also have Barry’s Brown Brogues Staunch XI. We’ve no idea what we’re going to get there, but Gueye certainly did fine the last time round. The concern would be Celtic. We’re not ready for Cup final previews yet, however, off the ball you’d have to say McGrath might be a better fit.

Longer term, I wonder if Thelin will be looking to strengthen, perhaps someone more capable on both sides of the ball. We will see.

In conclusion, members of the jury, Pape Habib Gueye is not the perfect footballer, but I would say his contributions to Aberdeen FC’s season have been very commendable. Has he done enough to justify his reported transfer fee? Probably not. Will he be the answer long-term? We don’t know. Does he have a role to play in the next five matches? Absolutely. Has he performed above everyone’s initial expectations at the start of the season? Definitely.

Cheers Pape. Not guilty in my book.

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COYR.